NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — July 15, 2012

Kasey Kahne

Winner

301

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kasey Kahne won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 15, 2012, leading 66 of 301 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Clint Bowyer rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Kasey Kahne

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Kasey Kahne		301	—	Running	66	47
2	3	+1	Denny Hamlin		301	—	Running	150	44
3	5	+2	Clint Bowyer		301	—	Running	1	42
4	9	+5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		301	—	Running	—	40
5	22	+17	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	301	—	Running	3	40
6	8	+2	Jeff Gordon		301	—	Running	5	39
7	7	—	Jimmie Johnson		301	—	Running	2	38
8	12	+4	Kevin Harvick		301	—	Running	—	36
9	11	+2	Greg Biffle		301	—	Running	—	35
10	6	-4	Ryan Newman		301	—	Running	—	34
11	4	-7	Martin Truex, Jr.		301	—	Running	—	33
12	10	-2	Tony Stewart		301	—	Running	—	32
13	27	+14	Matt Kenseth		301	—	Running	—	31
14	16	+2	Joey Logano		301	—	Running	—	30
15	15	—	Brian Vickers		301	—	Running	—	29
16	1	-15	Kyle Busch		301	—	Running	72	29
17	13	-4	Paul Menard		301	—	Running	—	27
18	21	+3	Carl Edwards		301	—	Running	—	26
19	20	+1	Marcos Ambrose		301	—	Running	—	25
20	28	+8	Jamie McMurray		300	—	Running	—	24
21	25	+4	Jeff Burton		300	—	Running	—	23
22	24	+2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	300	—	Running	—	0
23	18	-5	Bobby Labonte		300	—	Running	—	21
24	14	-10	Kurt Busch		299	—	Running	2	21
25	31	+6	Juan Pablo Montoya		299	—	Running	—	19
26	17	-9	Regan Smith		298	—	Running	—	18
27	39	+12	David Gilliland		298	—	Running	—	17
28	23	-5	Aric Almirola		298	—	Running	—	16
29	29	—	Landon Cassill		297	—	Running	—	15
30	30	—	Travis Kvapil		297	—	Running	—	14
31	37	+6	Ken Schrader		294	—	Running	—	13
32	43	+11	Stephen Leicht		293	—	Running	—	12
33	26	-7	David Reutimann		229	—	DNF	—	11
34	19	-15	David Ragan		139	—	DNF	—	10
35	40	+5	David Stremme		101	—	DNF	—	9
36	33	-3	Casey Mears		91	—	DNF	—	8
37	32	-5	Josh Wise		82	—	DNF	—	7
38	34	-4	Joe Nemechek		71	—	DNF	—	0
39	35	-4	Dave Blaney		68	—	DNF	—	5
40	36	-4	Michael McDowell		63	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Scott Riggs		32	—	DNF	—	3
42	42	—	Kelly Bires		19	—	DNF	—	2
43	38	-5	J.J. Yeley		4	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	6.8	2	+4.8	High Confidence
5	Brad Keselowski	12.0	5	+7.0	Coinflip
7	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	7	+10.7	Moderate
11	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	11	+2.8	Coinflip
14	Joey Logano	12.1	14	-1.9	Coinflip
16	Kyle Busch	15.6	16	-0.4	Coinflip
36	Casey Mears	18.0	36	-18.0	Moderate
40	Michael McDowell	15.0	40	-25.0	Coinflip
43	J.J. Yeley	28.1	43	-14.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kasey Kahne: has 25 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 16.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P18. Track history: 24 starts, 10.8 avg finish.

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