NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

Daytona International Speedway — July 7, 2012

Tony Stewart

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona at Daytona International Speedway on July 7, 2012, leading 22 of 160 laps. Jeff Burton finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 7, 2012

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	42	+41	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	22	47
2	20	+18	Jeff Burton		160	—	Running	—	42
3	1	-2	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	89	43
4	19	+15	Joey Logano		160	—	Running	—	40
5	2	-3	Ryan Newman		160	—	Running	—	39
6	12	+6	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	—	38
7	3	-4	Kasey Kahne		160	—	Running	—	37
8	9	+1	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	36
9	28	+19	Michael Waltrip		160	—	Running	—	35
10	41	+31	Bobby Labonte		160	—	Running	—	34
11	39	+28	David Reutimann		160	—	Running	—	33
12	5	-7	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	—	32
13	30	+17	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	—	31
14	13	-1	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	—	30
15	24	+9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	29
16	40	+24	Travis Kvapil		160	—	Running	—	28
17	18	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	2	28
18	7	-11	Casey Mears		160	—	Running	1	27
19	17	-2	Aric Almirola		160	—	Running	—	25
20	34	+14	Terry Labonte		160	—	Running	—	24
21	4	-17	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	35	24
22	33	+11	Dave Blaney		160	—	Running	—	22
23	11	-12	Kevin Harvick		159	—	Running	—	21
24	22	-2	Kyle Busch		159	—	Running	6	21
25	23	-2	Denny Hamlin		156	—	Running	—	19
26	27	+1	David Ragan		154	—	Running	1	19
27	15	-12	Trevor Bayne		152	—	Running	—	0
28	14	-14	Juan Pablo Montoya		152	—	Running	—	16
29	29	—	Clint Bowyer		152	—	Running	—	15
30	10	-20	Marcos Ambrose		152	—	Running	—	14
31	32	+1	David Gilliland		152	—	Running	1	14
32	38	+6	Landon Cassill		151	—	Running	—	12
33	8	-25	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	149	—	Running	—	0
34	25	-9	Regan Smith		133	—	DNF	—	10
35	35	—	Kurt Busch		132	—	DNF	—	9
36	16	-20	Jimmie Johnson		123	—	DNF	—	8
37	6	-31	Bill Elliott		123	—	DNF	—	7
38	31	-7	Josh Wise		47	—	DNF	3	7
39	26	-13	David Stremme		25	—	DNF	—	5
40	43	+3	J.J. Yeley		16	—	DNF	—	4
41	36	-5	Joe Nemechek		10	—	DNF	—	0
42	37	-5	Stephen Leicht		4	—	DNF	—	2
43	21	-22	Michael McDowell		3	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Joey Logano	20.5	4	+16.5	Moderate
8	Brad Keselowski	16.0	8	+8.0	Coinflip
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	17	+3.1	Coinflip
18	Casey Mears	18.5	18	+0.5	Coinflip
24	Kyle Busch	15.1	24	-8.9	Coinflip
25	Denny Hamlin	16.0	25	-9.0	Coinflip
36	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	36	-17.1	Coinflip
40	J.J. Yeley	25.2	40	-14.8	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	20.0	43	-23.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 47 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P24 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P21. Track history: 44 starts, 15.5 avg finish.

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