NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 12, 2012

Marcos Ambrose

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Marcos Ambrose won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 12, 2012, leading 8 of 90 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2012

Winner

Marcos Ambrose

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Marcos Ambrose		90	—	Running	8	47
2	4	+2	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	90	—	Running	37	43
3	3	—	Jimmie Johnson		90	—	Running	—	41
4	8	+4	Clint Bowyer		90	—	Running	—	40
5	17	+12	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	0
6	15	+9	Greg Biffle		90	—	Running	—	38
7	2	-5	Kyle Busch		90	—	Running	43	39
8	24	+16	Matt Kenseth		90	—	Running	—	36
9	13	+4	Regan Smith		90	—	Running	—	35
10	9	-1	Martin Truex, Jr.		90	—	Running	—	34
11	6	-5	Ryan Newman		90	—	Running	—	33
12	22	+10	Paul Menard		90	—	Running	—	32
13	20	+7	Kasey Kahne		90	—	Running	—	31
14	18	+4	Carl Edwards		90	—	Running	1	31
15	19	+4	Kevin Harvick		90	—	Running	—	29
16	30	+14	Casey Mears		90	—	Running	—	28
17	21	+4	Scott Speed		90	—	Running	—	27
18	29	+11	Aric Almirola		90	—	Running	—	26
19	7	-12	Tony Stewart		90	—	Running	—	25
20	34	+14	David Gilliland		90	—	Running	—	24
21	12	-9	Jeff Gordon		90	—	Running	—	23
22	32	+10	David Ragan		90	—	Running	—	22
23	35	+12	Landon Cassill		90	—	Running	—	21
24	42	+18	Travis Kvapil		90	—	Running	—	20
25	25	—	Boris Said		90	—	Running	—	19
26	39	+13	Stephen Leicht		90	—	Running	—	18
27	26	-1	Bobby Labonte		90	—	Running	—	17
28	16	-12	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		89	—	Running	—	16
29	36	+7	Joe Nemechek		88	—	Running	—	0
30	28	-2	Jeff Burton		84	—	Running	—	14
31	27	-4	Kurt Busch		81	—	Running	—	13
32	14	-18	Joey Logano		71	—	DNF	—	12
33	1	-32	Juan Pablo Montoya		63	—	DNF	1	12
34	23	-11	Denny Hamlin		57	—	DNF	—	10
35	41	+6	Jason Leffler		42	—	DNF	—	0
36	31	-5	Dave Blaney		41	—	DNF	—	8
37	11	-26	Michael McDowell		30	—	DNF	—	7
38	38	—	Josh Wise		25	—	DNF	—	6
39	10	-29	Jamie McMurray		24	—	DNF	—	5
40	37	-3	J.J. Yeley		15	—	DNF	—	4
41	40	-1	Chris Cook		5	—	DNF	—	0
42	43	+1	Patrick Long		2	—	DNF	—	2
43	33	-10	Brian Vickers		0	—	DNS	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Brad Keselowski	16.7	2	+14.7	High Confidence
3	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	3	+13.7	Moderate
7	Kyle Busch	13.0	7	+6.0	Coinflip
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	10	+6.5	Coinflip
16	Casey Mears	16.7	16	+0.7	Moderate
32	Joey Logano	12.7	32	-19.3	Moderate
34	Denny Hamlin	16.7	34	-17.3	Moderate
37	Michael McDowell	13.0	37	-24.0	Moderate
40	J.J. Yeley	21.9	40	-18.1	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Marcos Ambrose: has 11 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 5.4 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Joey Logano: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P32 on the day.
Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 24 starts, 13.3 avg finish.

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