Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 17, 2013

Denny Hamlin

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2013 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 17, 2013, leading 72 of 267 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Denny Hamlin	267	—	Running	72	47
2	1	-1	Matt Kenseth	267	—	Running	144	44
3	21	+18	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	267	—	Running	28	42
4	8	+4	Martin Truex, Jr.	267	—	Running	—	40
5	25	+20	Clint Bowyer	267	—	Running	—	39
6	4	-2	Brad Keselowski	267	—	Running	9	39
7	11	+4	Kyle Busch	267	—	Running	—	37
8	3	-5	Joey Logano	267	—	Running	—	36
9	7	-2	Jimmie Johnson	267	—	Running	—	35
10	6	-4	Kevin Harvick	267	—	Running	8	35
11	26	+15	Jeff Gordon	267	—	Running	—	33
12	18	+6	Carl Edwards	267	—	Running	—	32
13	13	—	Kasey Kahne	267	—	Running	—	31
14	10	-4	Elliott Sadler	267	—	Running	—	0
15	20	+5	Kyle Larson	267	—	Running	1	0
16	19	+3	Aric Almirola	267	—	Running	—	28
17	15	-2	Ryan Newman	267	—	Running	—	27
18	27	+9	Juan Pablo Montoya	267	—	Running	—	26
19	22	+3	Mark Martin	267	—	Running	—	25
20	24	+4	Danica Patrick	267	—	Running	—	24
21	2	-19	Kurt Busch	267	—	Running	4	24
22	9	-13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	267	—	Running	—	22
23	14	-9	Jeff Burton	267	—	Running	—	21
24	16	-8	Greg Biffle	267	—	Running	—	20
25	30	+5	Parker Kligerman	267	—	Running	—	0
26	23	-3	Marcos Ambrose	267	—	Running	—	18
27	31	+4	David Gilliland	266	—	Running	—	17
28	40	+12	Casey Mears	266	—	Running	—	16
29	29	—	David Ragan	266	—	Running	1	16
30	28	-2	Jamie McMurray	265	—	Running	—	14
31	32	+1	David Reutimann	265	—	Running	—	13
32	37	+5	J.J. Yeley	264	—	Running	—	12
33	39	+6	Landon Cassill	264	—	Running	—	0
34	41	+7	Ken Schrader	263	—	Running	—	10
35	42	+7	Joe Nemechek	263	—	Running	—	0
36	36	—	A.J. Allmendinger	257	—	Running	—	8
37	33	-4	Travis Kvapil	248	—	Running	—	7
38	38	—	Dave Blaney	242	—	Running	—	6
39	12	-27	Paul Menard	229	—	Running	—	5
40	17	-23	Trevor Bayne	223	—	DNF	—	0
41	35	-6	Josh Wise	119	—	DNF	—	0
42	43	+1	Tony Raines	104	—	DNF	—	0
43	34	-9	Michael McDowell	63	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
4	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	4	+11.4	Coinflip
6	Brad Keselowski	11.2	6	+5.2	Coinflip
7	Kyle Busch	17.0	7	+10.0	Coinflip
8	Joey Logano	12.7	8	+4.7	Coinflip
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	9	+10.9	Moderate
10	Kevin Harvick	11.2	10	+1.2	Moderate
15	Kyle Larson	10.7	15	-4.3	Moderate
16	Aric Almirola	15.4	16	-0.6	Coinflip
17	Ryan Newman	21.4	17	+4.4	High Confidence
22	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.2	22	+0.2	High Confidence
28	Casey Mears	17.1	28	-10.9	Coinflip
32	J.J. Yeley	28.2	32	-3.8	High Confidence
36	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	36	-17.7	Coinflip
43	Michael McDowell	16.2	43	-26.8	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P15. Track history: 19 starts, 10.7 avg finish.

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