NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 26, 2013

Kevin Harvick

Winner

400

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 26, 2013, leading 28 of 400 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Kevin Harvick	400	—	Running	28	47
2	6	+4	Kasey Kahne	400	—	Running	161	44
3	2	-1	Kurt Busch	400	—	Running	8	42
4	1	-3	Denny Hamlin	400	—	Running	6	41
5	31	+26	Joey Logano	400	—	Running	—	39
6	10	+4	Ryan Newman	400	—	Running	1	39
7	25	+18	Tony Stewart	400	—	Running	6	38
8	5	-3	Clint Bowyer	400	—	Running	—	36
9	17	+8	Martin Truex, Jr.	400	—	Running	—	35
10	19	+9	Marcos Ambrose	400	—	Running	—	34
11	13	+2	Carl Edwards	400	—	Running	7	34
12	27	+15	Jeff Burton	400	—	Running	—	32
13	22	+9	Paul Menard	400	—	Running	1	32
14	30	+16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	398	—	Running	—	30
15	3	-12	Matt Kenseth	398	—	Running	112	30
16	29	+13	Trevor Bayne	397	—	Running	—	0
17	36	+19	Regan Smith	397	—	Running	—	0
18	16	-2	Juan Pablo Montoya	397	—	Running	—	26
19	9	-10	Jamie McMurray	396	—	Running	2	26
20	26	+6	David Gilliland	396	—	Running	—	24
21	38	+17	David Reutimann	396	—	Running	—	23
22	12	-10	Jimmie Johnson	395	—	Running	—	22
23	21	-2	Casey Mears	394	—	Running	—	21
24	34	+10	Bobby Labonte	394	—	Running	—	20
25	35	+10	David Ragan	394	—	Running	—	19
26	43	+17	Josh Wise	393	—	Running	—	0
27	40	+13	Timmy Hill	391	—	Running	—	17
28	23	-5	J.J. Yeley	390	—	Running	—	16
29	24	-5	Danica Patrick	385	—	Running	—	15
30	33	+3	Dave Blaney	339	—	DNF	—	14
31	7	-24	Greg Biffle	335	—	DNF	—	13
32	39	+7	David Stremme	326	—	DNF	—	12
33	18	-15	Aric Almirola	324	—	DNF	—	11
34	4	-30	Mark Martin	324	—	DNF	—	10
35	14	-21	Jeff Gordon	324	—	DNF	—	9
36	20	-16	Brad Keselowski	317	—	DNF	3	9
37	42	+5	Landon Cassill	303	—	DNF	—	0
38	8	-30	Kyle Busch	257	—	DNF	65	7
39	11	-28	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	256	—	DNF	—	5
40	28	-12	Travis Kvapil	253	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Joe Nemechek	213	—	DNF	—	0
42	32	-10	Michael McDowell	50	—	DNF	—	2
43	37	-6	Scott Speed	39	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kevin Harvick	12.7	1	+11.7	Coinflip
4	Denny Hamlin	6.2	4	+2.2	High Confidence
5	Joey Logano	13.5	5	+8.5	Coinflip
9	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	9	+6.4	Coinflip
14	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.0	14	+7.0	High Confidence
22	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	22	-2.1	Moderate
23	Casey Mears	17.0	23	-6.0	Coinflip
27	Timmy Hill	24.7	27	-2.3	High Confidence
28	J.J. Yeley	28.2	28	+0.2	High Confidence
33	Aric Almirola	15.4	33	-17.6	Coinflip
36	Brad Keselowski	11.9	36	-24.1	Coinflip
38	Kyle Busch	17.1	38	-20.9	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	16.9	42	-25.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 52 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.

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