NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

Daytona International Speedway — July 6, 2013

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

161

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona at Daytona International Speedway on July 6, 2013, leading 94 of 161 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	8	+7	Jimmie Johnson	161	—	Running	94	48
2	13	+11	Tony Stewart	161	—	Running	—	42
3	26	+23	Kevin Harvick	161	—	Running	—	41
4	3	-1	Clint Bowyer	161	—	Running	—	40
5	7	+2	Michael Waltrip	161	—	Running	—	39
6	22	+16	Kurt Busch	161	—	Running	—	38
7	27	+20	Jamie McMurray	161	—	Running	10	38
8	16	+8	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	161	—	Running	—	36
9	19	+10	Casey Mears	161	—	Running	—	35
10	21	+11	Ryan Newman	161	—	Running	—	34
11	9	-2	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	161	—	Running	—	33
12	1	-11	Kyle Busch	161	—	Running	29	33
13	32	+19	J.J. Yeley	161	—	Running	2	32
14	11	-3	Danica Patrick	161	—	Running	—	30
15	28	+13	David Gilliland	161	—	Running	1	30
16	17	+1	Jeff Burton	161	—	Running	1	29
17	10	-7	Greg Biffle	161	—	Running	—	27
18	40	+22	Travis Kvapil	161	—	Running	1	27
19	39	+20	Terry Labonte	161	—	Running	—	25
20	20	—	Trevor Bayne	161	—	Running	—	0
21	15	-6	Brad Keselowski	161	—	Running	—	23
22	38	+16	David Ragan	161	—	Running	1	23
23	34	+11	Bobby Labonte	161	—	Running	—	21
24	43	+19	Landon Cassill	161	—	Running	—	0
25	37	+12	Josh Wise	161	—	Running	1	0
26	25	-1	Marcos Ambrose	161	—	Running	—	18
27	42	+15	Joe Nemechek	161	—	Running	—	0
28	36	+8	Scott Speed	161	—	Running	—	16
29	12	-17	Carl Edwards	161	—	Running	—	15
30	41	+11	David Reutimann	159	—	Running	—	14
31	29	-2	Dave Blaney	157	—	Running	—	13
32	4	-28	Kasey Kahne	155	—	Running	—	12
33	2	-31	Matt Kenseth	154	—	Running	1	12
34	23	-11	Jeff Gordon	151	—	Running	—	10
35	33	-2	A.J. Allmendinger	149	—	Running	—	9
36	24	-12	Denny Hamlin	149	—	Running	20	9
37	35	-2	David Stremme	127	—	DNF	—	7
38	30	-8	Aric Almirola	127	—	DNF	—	6
39	14	-25	Juan Pablo Montoya	126	—	DNF	—	5
40	18	-22	Joey Logano	105	—	DNF	—	4
41	5	-36	Martin Truex, Jr.	97	—	DNF	—	3
42	31	-11	Michael McDowell	33	—	DNF	—	2
43	6	-37	Paul Menard	23	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 14.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.4	1	+18.4	Coinflip
3	Kevin Harvick	20.0	3	+17.0	Coinflip
9	Casey Mears	19.4	9	+10.4	Coinflip
11	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	11	+7.5	Coinflip
12	Kyle Busch	16.0	12	+4.0	Coinflip
13	J.J. Yeley	24.0	13	+11.0	High Confidence
21	Brad Keselowski	13.9	21	-7.1	Coinflip
22	David Ragan	18.5	22	-3.5	Coinflip
35	A.J. Allmendinger	20.5	35	-14.5	Moderate
36	Denny Hamlin	17.4	36	-18.6	Coinflip
38	Aric Almirola	16.0	38	-22.0	Coinflip
40	Joey Logano	18.9	40	-21.1	Coinflip
41	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	41	-20.9	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	17.4	42	-24.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 42 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Brad Keselowski: was the model’s top pick based on 45 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.2 avg finish (1 win), finishing P21 on the day.

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