NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — July 14, 2013

Brian Vickers

Winner

302

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brian Vickers won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 14, 2013, leading 16 of 302 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Jeff Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Brian Vickers

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Brian Vickers	302	—	Running	16	0
2	4	+2	Kyle Busch	302	—	Running	53	43
3	9	+6	Jeff Burton	302	—	Running	—	41
4	1	-3	Brad Keselowski	302	—	Running	14	41
5	17	+12	Aric Almirola	302	—	Running	—	39
6	43	+37	Jimmie Johnson	302	—	Running	—	38
7	18	+11	Kevin Harvick	302	—	Running	—	37
8	6	-2	Carl Edwards	302	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Matt Kenseth	302	—	Running	33	36
10	5	-5	Jeff Gordon	302	—	Running	—	34
11	8	-3	Kasey Kahne	302	—	Running	—	33
12	11	-1	Jamie McMurray	302	—	Running	—	32
13	20	+7	Clint Bowyer	302	—	Running	—	31
14	3	-11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	302	—	Running	—	30
15	22	+7	Greg Biffle	302	—	Running	—	29
16	19	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.	302	—	Running	—	28
17	14	-3	Paul Menard	302	—	Running	—	27
18	24	+6	David Gilliland	302	—	Running	—	26
19	29	+10	David Ragan	302	—	Running	—	25
20	42	+22	David Stremme	302	—	Running	—	24
21	7	-14	Denny Hamlin	302	—	Running	—	23
22	26	+4	A.J. Allmendinger	302	—	Running	—	22
23	39	+16	Dave Blaney	302	—	Running	—	21
24	10	-14	Juan Pablo Montoya	302	—	Running	—	20
25	38	+13	Joe Nemechek	302	—	Running	—	0
26	16	-10	Tony Stewart	302	—	Running	84	19
27	33	+6	Bobby Labonte	301	—	Running	—	17
28	27	-1	David Reutimann	299	—	Running	—	16
29	40	+11	J.J. Yeley	298	—	Running	—	15
30	37	+7	Ken Schrader	298	—	Running	—	14
31	2	-29	Kurt Busch	283	—	Running	102	15
32	36	+4	Landon Cassill	281	—	Running	—	0
33	21	-12	Marcos Ambrose	277	—	Running	—	11
34	23	-11	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	275	—	Running	—	10
35	35	—	Josh Wise	270	—	Running	—	0
36	28	-8	Casey Mears	242	—	DNF	—	8
37	32	-5	Danica Patrick	237	—	DNF	—	7
38	31	-7	Travis Kvapil	236	—	DNF	—	6
39	15	-24	Ryan Newman	225	—	DNF	—	5
40	25	-15	Joey Logano	211	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Morgan Shepherd	92	—	DNF	—	0
42	30	-12	Michael McDowell	89	—	DNF	—	2
43	34	-9	Mike Bliss	75	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	14.0	2	+12.0	Coinflip
4	Brad Keselowski	12.0	4	+8.0	Coinflip
5	Aric Almirola	15.0	5	+10.0	Coinflip
6	Jimmie Johnson	18.3	6	+12.3	Moderate
7	Kevin Harvick	10.3	7	+3.3	Moderate
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	14.0	16	-2.0	Coinflip
21	Denny Hamlin	8.6	21	-12.4	Moderate
22	A.J. Allmendinger	19.0	22	-3.0	Moderate
29	J.J. Yeley	27.3	29	-1.7	High Confidence
34	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.0	34	-13.0	High Confidence
36	Casey Mears	17.7	36	-18.3	Moderate
39	Ryan Newman	23.1	39	-15.9	High Confidence
40	Joey Logano	10.8	40	-29.2	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	14.0	42	-28.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brian Vickers: has 15 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P21 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P18. Track history: 24 starts, 10.8 avg finish.

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