NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — October 6, 2013

Kevin Harvick

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on October 6, 2013, leading 138 of 267 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kevin Harvick	267	—	Running	138	48
2	19	+17	Kurt Busch	267	—	Running	—	42
3	14	+11	Jeff Gordon	267	—	Running	—	41
4	5	+1	Joey Logano	267	—	Running	33	41
5	9	+4	Carl Edwards	267	—	Running	—	39
6	3	-3	Jimmie Johnson	267	—	Running	6	39
7	8	+1	Paul Menard	267	—	Running	—	37
8	6	-2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	267	—	Running	10	37
9	25	+16	Marcos Ambrose	267	—	Running	—	35
10	20	+10	Aric Almirola	267	—	Running	—	34
11	7	-4	Matt Kenseth	267	—	Running	21	34
12	16	+4	Jeff Burton	267	—	Running	1	33
13	26	+13	Greg Biffle	267	—	Running	—	31
14	22	+8	Clint Bowyer	267	—	Running	—	30
15	15	—	Kasey Kahne	267	—	Running	—	29
16	24	+8	Jamie McMurray	267	—	Running	—	28
17	4	-13	Brad Keselowski	267	—	Running	52	28
18	12	-6	Juan Pablo Montoya	267	—	Running	—	26
19	13	-6	Martin Truex, Jr.	267	—	Running	—	25
20	28	+8	A.J. Allmendinger	267	—	Running	—	24
21	37	+16	Casey Mears	267	—	Running	1	24
22	23	+1	Mark Martin	267	—	Running	—	22
23	10	-13	Denny Hamlin	267	—	Running	—	21
24	34	+10	David Gilliland	267	—	Running	—	20
25	41	+16	Dave Blaney	267	—	Running	—	19
26	36	+10	Travis Kvapil	267	—	Running	1	19
27	33	+6	J.J. Yeley	267	—	Running	1	18
28	35	+7	Timmy Hill	267	—	Running	—	16
29	42	+13	Tony Raines	267	—	Running	—	0
30	2	-28	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	266	—	Running	—	14
31	30	-1	Cole Whitt	260	—	Running	—	0
32	11	-21	Brian Vickers	242	—	Running	—	0
33	43	+10	Landon Cassill	235	—	Running	—	0
34	18	-16	Kyle Busch	199	—	DNF	1	11
35	17	-18	Ryan Newman	188	—	DNF	—	9
36	32	-4	David Ragan	168	—	DNF	2	9
37	27	-10	David Reutimann	157	—	DNF	—	7
38	31	-7	Michael McDowell	144	—	DNF	—	6
39	21	-18	Justin Allgaier	135	—	DNF	—	0
40	38	-2	Josh Wise	108	—	DNF	—	0
41	39	-2	Joe Nemechek	107	—	DNF	—	0
42	40	-2	Reed Sorenson	103	—	DNF	—	0
43	29	-14	Danica Patrick	0	—	DNS	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kevin Harvick	11.2	1	+10.2	Moderate
4	Joey Logano	12.7	4	+8.7	Coinflip
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
10	Aric Almirola	15.4	10	+5.4	Coinflip
17	Brad Keselowski	11.2	17	-5.8	Coinflip
19	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	19	-3.6	Coinflip
20	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	20	-1.7	Coinflip
21	Casey Mears	17.1	21	-3.9	Coinflip
23	Denny Hamlin	8.2	23	-14.8	High Confidence
27	J.J. Yeley	28.2	27	+1.2	High Confidence
28	Timmy Hill	23.4	28	-4.6	High Confidence
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.2	30	-7.8	High Confidence
34	Kyle Busch	17.0	34	-17.0	Coinflip
38	Michael McDowell	16.2	38	-21.8	Coinflip
39	Justin Allgaier	18.3	39	-20.7	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 45 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 9.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P23 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.

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