NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte

Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 12, 2013

Brad Keselowski

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 12, 2013, leading 11 of 334 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	23	+22	Brad Keselowski	334	—	Running	11	47
2	5	+3	Kasey Kahne	334	—	Running	138	44
3	20	+17	Matt Kenseth	334	—	Running	1	42
4	4	—	Jimmie Johnson	334	—	Running	130	41
5	9	+4	Kyle Busch	334	—	Running	4	40
6	2	-4	Kevin Harvick	334	—	Running	—	38
7	1	-6	Jeff Gordon	334	—	Running	26	38
8	7	-1	Ryan Newman	334	—	Running	2	37
9	18	+9	Denny Hamlin	334	—	Running	—	35
10	15	+5	Carl Edwards	334	—	Running	1	35
11	14	+3	Clint Bowyer	334	—	Running	1	34
12	8	-4	Juan Pablo Montoya	334	—	Running	—	32
13	16	+3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	334	—	Running	—	31
14	10	-4	Kurt Busch	333	—	Running	—	30
15	6	-9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	333	—	Running	19	30
16	3	-13	Greg Biffle	333	—	Running	—	28
17	29	+12	Marcos Ambrose	333	—	Running	—	27
18	12	-6	Joey Logano	332	—	Running	—	26
19	25	+6	Jamie McMurray	332	—	Running	—	25
20	35	+15	Danica Patrick	332	—	Running	—	24
21	26	+5	Jeff Burton	332	—	Running	—	23
22	17	-5	Martin Truex, Jr.	331	—	Running	—	22
23	11	-12	Aric Almirola	331	—	Running	—	21
24	13	-11	Paul Menard	331	—	Running	—	20
25	27	+2	Brian Vickers	330	—	Running	—	0
26	36	+10	David Reutimann	330	—	Running	—	18
27	19	-8	Brian Scott	330	—	Running	—	0
28	24	-4	Bobby Labonte	329	—	Running	—	16
29	34	+5	David Gilliland	328	—	Running	1	16
30	30	—	David Ragan	328	—	Running	—	14
31	28	-3	Casey Mears	328	—	Running	—	13
32	39	+7	Dave Blaney	327	—	Running	—	12
33	32	-1	Landon Cassill	327	—	Running	—	0
34	31	-3	Cole Whitt	327	—	Running	—	0
35	41	+6	Travis Kvapil	326	—	Running	—	9
36	40	+4	Timmy Hill	324	—	Running	—	8
37	21	-16	Kyle Larson	247	—	DNF	—	0
38	43	+5	Blake Koch	216	—	DNF	—	0
39	38	-1	Joe Nemechek	149	—	DNF	—	0
40	37	-3	Michael McDowell	83	—	DNF	—	4
41	33	-8	Josh Wise	81	—	DNF	—	0
42	22	-20	Mark Martin	80	—	DNF	—	2
43	42	-1	J.J. Yeley	23	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	11.2	1	+10.2	Coinflip
4	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	4	+15.9	Moderate
5	Kyle Busch	17.0	5	+12.0	Coinflip
6	Kevin Harvick	11.2	6	+5.2	Coinflip
9	Denny Hamlin	8.2	9	-0.8	High Confidence
13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.2	13	+9.2	High Confidence
18	Joey Logano	12.7	18	-5.3	Coinflip
22	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	22	-6.6	Coinflip
23	Aric Almirola	15.4	23	-7.6	Coinflip
31	Casey Mears	17.1	31	-13.9	Coinflip
36	Timmy Hill	23.9	36	-12.1	High Confidence
37	Kyle Larson	10.7	37	-26.3	Moderate
40	Michael McDowell	16.6	40	-23.4	Coinflip
43	J.J. Yeley	28.2	43	-14.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 45 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 19.1 avg finish.

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