NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — October 27, 2013

Jeff Gordon

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on October 27, 2013, leading 78 of 500 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Clint Bowyer rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Jeff Gordon	500	—	Running	78	47
2	4	+2	Matt Kenseth	500	—	Running	202	44
3	5	+2	Clint Bowyer	500	—	Running	60	42
4	11	+7	Brad Keselowski	500	—	Running	—	40
5	2	-3	Jimmie Johnson	500	—	Running	123	40
6	10	+4	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	—	38
7	1	-6	Denny Hamlin	500	—	Running	14	38
8	12	+4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	36
9	33	+24	Greg Biffle	500	—	Running	—	35
10	7	-3	Jamie McMurray	500	—	Running	—	34
11	22	+11	Jeff Burton	500	—	Running	5	34
12	14	+2	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	—	32
13	13	—	Juan Pablo Montoya	500	—	Running	—	31
14	6	-8	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	—	30
15	3	-12	Kyle Busch	500	—	Running	12	30
16	15	-1	Martin Truex, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	28
17	41	+24	Danica Patrick	499	—	Running	—	27
18	19	+1	Kurt Busch	499	—	Running	—	26
19	16	-3	Marcos Ambrose	499	—	Running	—	25
20	18	-2	Aric Almirola	499	—	Running	—	24
21	28	+7	Casey Mears	499	—	Running	—	23
22	23	+1	Paul Menard	499	—	Running	—	22
23	27	+4	David Gilliland	499	—	Running	—	21
24	32	+8	Travis Kvapil	499	—	Running	—	20
25	35	+10	Elliott Sadler	499	—	Running	6	0
26	36	+10	Michael McDowell	498	—	Running	—	18
27	25	-2	Kasey Kahne	497	—	Running	—	17
28	38	+10	Ken Schrader	496	—	Running	—	16
29	24	-5	Landon Cassill	495	—	Running	—	0
30	37	+7	J.J. Yeley	495	—	Running	—	14
31	20	-11	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	495	—	Running	—	13
32	34	+2	Bobby Labonte	494	—	Running	—	12
33	40	+7	Joe Nemechek	493	—	Running	—	0
34	31	-3	Josh Wise	490	—	Running	—	0
35	30	-5	Cole Whitt	459	—	Running	—	0
36	21	-15	Mark Martin	455	—	Running	—	8
37	43	+6	David Reutimann	451	—	Running	—	7
38	17	-21	Ryan Newman	432	—	Running	—	6
39	29	-10	Dave Blaney	357	—	DNF	—	5
40	42	+2	Reed Sorenson	275	—	DNF	—	0
41	39	-2	Tony Raines	220	—	DNF	—	0
42	26	-16	Kyle Larson	160	—	DNF	—	0
43	8	-35	David Ragan	109	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.2 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Brad Keselowski	12.0	4	+8.0	Coinflip
5	Jimmie Johnson	18.0	5	+13.0	Moderate
6	Kevin Harvick	10.3	6	+4.3	Moderate
7	Denny Hamlin	8.6	7	+1.6	Moderate
14	Joey Logano	10.8	14	-3.2	Moderate
15	Kyle Busch	14.0	15	-1.0	Coinflip
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	14.0	16	-2.0	Coinflip
20	Aric Almirola	15.0	20	-5.0	Coinflip
21	Casey Mears	17.7	21	-3.3	Coinflip
26	Michael McDowell	14.0	26	-12.0	Coinflip
30	J.J. Yeley	27.3	30	-2.7	High Confidence
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.4	31	-10.6	Moderate
38	Ryan Newman	23.0	38	-15.0	High Confidence
42	Kyle Larson	8.6	42	-33.4	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 51 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 7.0 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 36 starts, 8.7 avg finish.

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