NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — October 20, 2013

Jamie McMurray

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jamie McMurray won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 20, 2013, leading 16 of 188 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Ricky Stenhouse Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 20 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2013

Winner

Jamie McMurray

Leaders

20 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Jamie McMurray	188	—	Running	16	47
2	8	+6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	188	—	Running	38	43
3	21	+18	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	188	—	Running	6	42
4	34	+30	Paul Menard	188	—	Running	—	40
5	27	+22	Kyle Busch	188	—	Running	9	40
6	7	+1	David Ragan	188	—	Running	1	39
7	24	+17	David Gilliland	188	—	Running	—	37
8	4	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.	188	—	Running	—	36
9	17	+8	Ryan Newman	188	—	Running	—	35
10	20	+10	Clint Bowyer	188	—	Running	2	35
11	6	-5	Greg Biffle	188	—	Running	5	34
12	33	+21	Kevin Harvick	188	—	Running	—	32
13	11	-2	Jimmie Johnson	188	—	Running	47	33
14	19	+5	Jeff Gordon	188	—	Running	3	31
15	36	+21	Michael McDowell	188	—	Running	—	29
16	18	+2	Joey Logano	188	—	Running	7	29
17	5	-12	Carl Edwards	188	—	Running	1	28
18	30	+12	Kurt Busch	188	—	Running	3	27
19	38	+19	Travis Kvapil	188	—	Running	—	25
20	12	-8	Matt Kenseth	188	—	Running	32	25
21	2	-19	Jeff Burton	188	—	Running	4	24
22	1	-21	Aric Almirola	188	—	Running	8	23
23	26	+3	Trevor Bayne	188	—	Running	—	0
24	35	+11	Justin Allgaier	188	—	Running	—	0
25	39	+14	Dave Blaney	188	—	Running	1	20
26	16	-10	Austin Dillon	187	—	Running	—	0
27	10	-17	Casey Mears	187	—	Running	1	18
28	37	+9	J.J. Yeley	187	—	Running	—	16
29	13	-16	Brad Keselowski	187	—	Running	—	15
30	14	-16	Josh Wise	187	—	Running	—	0
31	31	—	Cole Whitt	187	—	Running	—	0
32	22	-10	Michael Waltrip	187	—	Running	—	12
33	23	-10	Danica Patrick	187	—	Running	—	11
34	29	-5	Bobby Labonte	187	—	Running	2	11
35	40	+5	Terry Labonte	187	—	Running	1	10
36	28	-8	Kasey Kahne	186	—	Running	1	9
37	43	+6	Landon Cassill	183	—	Running	—	0
38	15	-23	Denny Hamlin	142	—	DNF	—	6
39	3	-36	Marcos Ambrose	134	—	DNF	—	5
40	25	-15	David Reutimann	119	—	DNF	—	4
41	32	-9	Juan Pablo Montoya	78	—	DNF	—	3
42	42	—	Joe Nemechek	60	—	DNF	—	0
43	41	-2	Tony Raines	2	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.5 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.4	3	+16.4	Coinflip
5	Kyle Busch	16.0	5	+11.0	Coinflip
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	8	+12.1	Moderate
12	Kevin Harvick	20.0	12	+8.0	Coinflip
13	Jimmie Johnson	19.4	13	+6.4	Coinflip
15	Michael McDowell	17.4	15	+2.4	Coinflip
16	Joey Logano	18.9	16	+2.9	Coinflip
22	Aric Almirola	16.0	22	-6.0	Coinflip
24	Justin Allgaier	21.1	24	-2.9	Moderate
26	Austin Dillon	22.9	26	-3.1	Moderate
27	Casey Mears	18.5	27	-8.5	Coinflip
28	J.J. Yeley	24.0	28	-4.0	High Confidence
29	Brad Keselowski	13.9	29	-15.1	Coinflip
38	Denny Hamlin	17.4	38	-20.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jamie McMurray: has 35 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 20.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Brad Keselowski: was the model’s top pick based on 36 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.8 avg finish (6 wins), finishing P29 on the day.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P19. Track history: 23 starts, 12.5 avg finish.

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