NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas

Texas Motor Speedway — November 3, 2013

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas at Texas Motor Speedway on November 3, 2013, leading 255 of 334 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Track

Texas Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Jimmie Johnson	334	—	Running	255	48
2	7	+5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	334	—	Running	—	42
3	12	+9	Joey Logano	334	—	Running	1	42
4	6	+2	Matt Kenseth	334	—	Running	3	41
5	11	+6	Kasey Kahne	334	—	Running	—	39
6	2	-4	Brad Keselowski	334	—	Running	30	39
7	14	+7	Denny Hamlin	334	—	Running	—	37
8	19	+11	Kevin Harvick	334	—	Running	—	36
9	13	+4	Ryan Newman	334	—	Running	2	36
10	26	+16	Clint Bowyer	334	—	Running	—	34
11	33	+22	Mark Martin	334	—	Running	—	33
12	18	+6	Greg Biffle	334	—	Running	1	33
13	5	-8	Kyle Busch	334	—	Running	2	32
14	15	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.	334	—	Running	—	30
15	4	-11	Paul Menard	333	—	Running	—	29
16	9	-7	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	332	—	Running	—	28
17	31	+14	Kurt Busch	332	—	Running	—	27
18	23	+5	Parker Kligerman	332	—	Running	—	0
19	25	+6	Elliott Sadler	331	—	Running	—	0
20	16	-4	Juan Pablo Montoya	331	—	Running	—	24
21	10	-11	Marcos Ambrose	331	—	Running	—	23
22	21	-1	Austin Dillon	331	—	Running	—	0
23	36	+13	Kyle Larson	331	—	Running	—	0
24	20	-4	Jeff Burton	331	—	Running	—	20
25	30	+5	Danica Patrick	331	—	Running	—	19
26	28	+2	David Gilliland	330	—	Running	—	18
27	17	-10	Aric Almirola	330	—	Running	—	17
28	39	+11	David Reutimann	330	—	Running	—	16
29	32	+3	Trevor Bayne	330	—	Running	—	0
30	43	+13	J.J. Yeley	329	—	Running	—	14
31	24	-7	Jamie McMurray	329	—	Running	—	13
32	38	+6	Travis Kvapil	329	—	Running	—	12
33	27	-6	Casey Mears	328	—	Running	—	11
34	37	+3	Landon Cassill	328	—	Running	—	0
35	42	+7	Dave Blaney	326	—	Running	—	9
36	41	+5	Joe Nemechek	190	—	DNF	—	0
37	1	-36	Carl Edwards	187	—	DNF	38	8
38	8	-30	Jeff Gordon	147	—	DNF	—	6
39	34	-5	Josh Wise	145	—	DNF	—	0
40	22	-18	Bobby Labonte	144	—	DNF	—	4
41	40	-1	Timmy Hill	125	—	DNF	—	3
42	29	-13	David Ragan	81	—	DNF	1	3
43	35	-8	Michael McDowell	27	—	DNF	1	2

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
3	Joey Logano	12.7	3	+9.7	Coinflip
6	Brad Keselowski	11.2	6	+5.2	Coinflip
7	Denny Hamlin	8.2	7	+1.2	High Confidence
8	Kevin Harvick	11.2	8	+3.2	Coinflip
13	Kyle Busch	17.0	13	+4.0	Coinflip
14	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	14	+1.4	Coinflip
16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.2	16	+6.2	High Confidence
22	Austin Dillon	18.3	22	-3.7	Moderate
23	Kyle Larson	10.7	23	-12.3	Moderate
27	Aric Almirola	15.4	27	-11.6	Coinflip
30	J.J. Yeley	28.2	30	-1.8	High Confidence
33	Casey Mears	17.1	33	-15.9	Coinflip
41	Timmy Hill	23.9	41	-17.1	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	16.6	43	-26.4	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 34 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 10.3 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 45 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.

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