NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 16, 2014

Carl Edwards

Winner

503

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 16, 2014, leading 78 of 503 laps. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished second; Aric Almirola rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	12	+11	Carl Edwards	503	—	Running	78	47
2	21	+19	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	503	—	Running	—	42
3	23	+20	Aric Almirola	503	—	Running	—	41
4	37	+33	Tony Stewart	503	—	Running	—	40
5	5	—	Marcos Ambrose	503	—	Running	—	39
6	1	-5	Denny Hamlin	503	—	Running	4	39
7	6	-1	Jeff Gordon	503	—	Running	—	37
8	10	+2	Kasey Kahne	503	—	Running	16	37
9	38	+29	Brian Vickers	503	—	Running	—	35
10	20	+10	Kyle Larson	503	—	Running	—	34
11	26	+15	Austin Dillon	503	—	Running	—	33
12	8	-4	Greg Biffle	503	—	Running	—	32
13	3	-10	Matt Kenseth	503	—	Running	165	33
14	2	-12	Brad Keselowski	503	—	Running	40	31
15	15	—	Clint Bowyer	503	—	Running	5	30
16	9	-7	Ryan Newman	503	—	Running	—	28
17	30	+13	Justin Allgaier	502	—	Running	—	27
18	36	+18	Danica Patrick	502	—	Running	—	26
19	11	-8	Jimmie Johnson	501	—	Running	44	26
20	4	-16	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	12	25
21	28	+7	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	—	23
22	16	-6	David Gilliland	500	—	Running	—	22
23	32	+9	Josh Wise	499	—	Running	—	21
24	14	-10	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	499	—	Running	—	20
25	22	-3	A.J. Allmendinger	498	—	Running	—	19
26	34	+8	Michael Annett	497	—	Running	—	18
27	25	-2	Casey Mears	497	—	Running	—	17
28	35	+7	Reed Sorenson	497	—	Running	—	16
29	7	-22	Kyle Busch	496	—	Running	73	16
30	31	+1	Landon Cassill	496	—	Running	—	0
31	19	-12	David Ragan	495	—	Running	—	13
32	33	+1	Alex Bowman	493	—	Running	—	12
33	39	+6	Travis Kvapil	491	—	Running	—	11
34	41	+7	Parker Kligerman	487	—	Running	—	10
35	13	-22	Kurt Busch	473	—	Running	28	10
36	29	-7	Martin Truex, Jr.	471	—	Running	—	8
37	24	-13	Michael McDowell	469	—	Running	—	7
38	17	-21	Jamie McMurray	453	—	Running	10	7
39	27	-12	Kevin Harvick	450	—	Running	28	6
40	18	-22	Cole Whitt	430	—	Running	—	4
41	42	+1	Joe Nemechek	322	—	DNF	—	0
42	40	-2	Ryan Truex	271	—	DNF	—	2
43	43	—	Timmy Hill	160	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	2	+18.1	Moderate
6	Denny Hamlin	6.8	6	+0.8	High Confidence
10	Kyle Larson	8.6	10	-1.4	Moderate
11	Austin Dillon	17.0	11	+6.0	Coinflip
14	Brad Keselowski	12.0	14	-2.0	Coinflip
17	Justin Allgaier	17.7	17	+0.7	Moderate
19	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	19	-1.3	Moderate
20	Joey Logano	12.1	20	-7.9	Coinflip
25	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	25	-6.7	Moderate
27	Casey Mears	18.0	27	-9.0	Moderate
29	Kyle Busch	15.6	29	-13.4	Coinflip
32	Alex Bowman	14.0	32	-18.0	Coinflip
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	36	-22.2	Coinflip
37	Michael McDowell	15.0	37	-22.0	Coinflip
42	Ryan Truex	15.6	42	-26.4	Coinflip
43	Timmy Hill	24.3	43	-18.7	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 38 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.0 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P6 on the day.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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