NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 10, 2014

A.J. Allmendinger

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

A.J. Allmendinger won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 10, 2014, leading 29 of 90 laps. Marcos Ambrose finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2014

Winner

A.J. Allmendinger

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	6	+5	A.J. Allmendinger	90	—	Running	29	48
2	2	—	Marcos Ambrose	90	—	Running	20	43
3	5	+2	Kurt Busch	90	—	Running	—	41
4	23	+19	Kyle Larson	90	—	Running	—	40
5	16	+11	Carl Edwards	90	—	Running	3	40
6	11	+5	Joey Logano	90	—	Running	—	38
7	4	-3	Kevin Harvick	90	—	Running	—	37
8	28	+20	Greg Biffle	90	—	Running	—	36
9	8	-1	Matt Kenseth	90	—	Running	—	35
10	12	+2	Brian Vickers	90	—	Running	—	34
11	7	-4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	90	—	Running	—	33
12	30	+18	Kasey Kahne	90	—	Running	3	33
13	25	+12	Martin Truex, Jr.	90	—	Running	—	31
14	14	—	Jamie McMurray	90	—	Running	—	30
15	22	+7	Casey Mears	90	—	Running	—	29
16	31	+15	Austin Dillon	90	—	Running	—	28
17	15	-2	Justin Allgaier	90	—	Running	—	27
18	27	+9	Aric Almirola	90	—	Running	—	26
19	26	+7	David Ragan	90	—	Running	—	25
20	21	+1	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	90	—	Running	—	24
21	43	+22	Danica Patrick	90	—	Running	—	23
22	33	+11	David Gilliland	90	—	Running	—	22
23	39	+16	Reed Sorenson	90	—	Running	—	21
24	17	-7	Denny Hamlin	90	—	Running	—	20
25	34	+9	Boris Said	90	—	Running	—	19
26	32	+6	Nelson Piquet Jr.	90	—	Running	—	18
27	24	-3	Clint Bowyer	90	—	Running	—	17
28	3	-25	Jimmie Johnson	90	—	Running	6	17
29	41	+12	Landon Cassill	89	—	Running	—	0
30	40	+10	Joe Nemechek	89	—	Running	—	0
31	42	+11	Michael Annett	88	—	Running	—	13
32	20	-12	Paul Menard	87	—	Running	—	12
33	38	+5	Alex Kennedy	86	—	Running	—	11
34	1	-33	Jeff Gordon	86	—	Running	29	12
35	9	-26	Brad Keselowski	85	—	Running	—	9
36	36	—	Alex Bowman	85	—	Running	—	8
37	13	-24	Regan Smith	81	—	Running	—	0
38	37	-1	Josh Wise	78	—	Running	—	6
39	35	-4	Ryan Truex	69	—	DNF	—	5
40	19	-21	Kyle Busch	69	—	DNF	—	4
41	10	-31	Ryan Newman	55	—	DNF	—	3
42	29	-13	Michael McDowell	55	—	DNF	—	2
43	18	-25	Cole Whitt	9	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	1	+15.5	Coinflip
4	Kyle Larson	12.9	4	+8.9	Moderate
6	Joey Logano	12.7	6	+6.7	Moderate
13	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	13	+3.5	Coinflip
15	Casey Mears	16.7	15	+1.7	Moderate
16	Austin Dillon	21.4	16	+5.4	Moderate
17	Justin Allgaier	16.8	17	-0.2	Moderate
20	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.4	20	+1.4	High Confidence
24	Denny Hamlin	16.7	24	-7.3	Moderate
28	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	28	-11.3	Moderate
35	Brad Keselowski	16.7	35	-18.3	High Confidence
36	Alex Bowman	16.7	36	-19.3	Moderate
39	Ryan Truex	20.8	39	-18.2	Coinflip
40	Kyle Busch	13.0	40	-27.0	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	13.0	42	-29.0	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

A.J. Allmendinger: has 21 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 9.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Joey Logano: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P6 on the day.

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