NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — September 27, 2015

Matt Kenseth

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 27, 2015, leading 27 of 300 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Matt Kenseth	300	—	Running	27	47
2	7	+5	Denny Hamlin	300	—	Running	21	43
3	8	+5	Joey Logano	300	—	Running	—	41
4	25	+21	Greg Biffle	300	—	Running	12	41
5	1	-4	Carl Edwards	300	—	Running	19	40
6	5	-1	Jimmie Johnson	300	—	Running	—	38
7	10	+3	Jeff Gordon	300	—	Running	—	37
8	21	+13	Martin Truex, Jr.	300	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Kasey Kahne	300	—	Running	—	35
10	9	-1	Ryan Newman	300	—	Running	—	34
11	27	+16	Tony Stewart	300	—	Running	—	33
12	4	-8	Brad Keselowski	300	—	Running	4	33
13	14	+1	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	300	—	Running	—	31
14	23	+9	Jamie McMurray	300	—	Running	—	30
15	20	+5	Paul Menard	300	—	Running	—	29
16	33	+17	Trevor Bayne	300	—	Running	—	28
17	6	-11	Kyle Larson	300	—	Running	—	27
18	19	+1	Casey Mears	300	—	Running	—	26
19	3	-16	Kurt Busch	299	—	Running	—	25
20	29	+9	Sam Hornish Jr.	299	—	Running	—	24
21	2	-19	Kevin Harvick	299	—	Running	216	25
22	16	-6	Austin Dillon	299	—	Running	—	22
23	30	+7	A.J. Allmendinger	299	—	Running	—	21
24	28	+4	Cole Whitt	299	—	Running	1	21
25	11	-14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	299	—	Running	—	19
26	26	—	Clint Bowyer	299	—	Running	—	18
27	31	+4	Brett Moffitt	298	—	Running	—	17
28	34	+6	David Gilliland	297	—	Running	—	16
29	38	+9	Michael Annett	297	—	Running	—	15
30	35	+5	Matt DiBenedetto	297	—	Running	—	14
31	40	+9	Josh Wise	297	—	Running	—	13
32	37	+5	Ryan Preece	296	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	Jeb Burton	295	—	Running	—	11
34	39	+5	B.J. McLeod	293	—	Running	—	0
35	42	+7	Jeffrey Earnhardt	292	—	Running	—	0
36	43	+7	Timmy Hill	284	—	Running	—	0
37	17	-20	Kyle Busch	262	—	Running	—	7
38	32	-6	Landon Cassill	242	—	DNF	—	0
39	24	-15	Justin Allgaier	236	—	DNF	—	5
40	22	-18	Danica Patrick	203	—	DNF	—	4
41	18	-23	David Ragan	203	—	DNF	—	3
42	36	-6	Alex Bowman	117	—	DNF	—	2
43	15	-28	Aric Almirola	35	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	6.8	2	+4.8	High Confidence
3	Joey Logano	12.1	3	+9.1	Coinflip
6	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	6	+11.7	Moderate
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	8	+5.8	Coinflip
12	Brad Keselowski	12.0	12	0.0	Coinflip
13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	13	+7.1	Moderate
17	Kyle Larson	8.6	17	-8.4	Moderate
18	Casey Mears	18.0	18	0.0	Moderate
22	Austin Dillon	17.0	22	-5.0	Coinflip
23	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	23	-4.7	Moderate
32	Ryan Preece	10.8	32	-21.2	Coinflip
34	B.J. McLeod	25.6	34	-8.4	High Confidence
36	Timmy Hill	24.3	36	-11.7	High Confidence
37	Kyle Busch	15.6	37	-21.4	Coinflip
39	Justin Allgaier	17.7	39	-21.3	Moderate
42	Alex Bowman	14.0	42	-28.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 30 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P18. Track history: 24 starts, 10.8 avg finish.

Track Preview →