NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO

Pocono Raceway — June 7, 2015

Martin Truex, Jr.

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO at Pocono Raceway on June 7, 2015, leading 97 of 160 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 7, 2015

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2015

Winner

Martin Truex, Jr.

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Martin Truex, Jr.	160	—	Running	97	48
2	5	+3	Kevin Harvick	160	—	Running	39	43
3	9	+6	Jimmie Johnson	160	—	Running	—	41
4	11	+7	Joey Logano	160	—	Running	—	40
5	1	-4	Kurt Busch	160	—	Running	—	39
6	19	+13	Matt Kenseth	160	—	Running	—	38
7	14	+7	Jamie McMurray	160	—	Running	—	37
8	15	+7	Kyle Larson	160	—	Running	—	36
9	10	+1	Kyle Busch	160	—	Running	—	35
10	8	-2	Denny Hamlin	160	—	Running	—	34
11	20	+9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	33
12	27	+15	Greg Biffle	160	—	Running	—	32
13	12	-1	Kasey Kahne	160	—	Running	2	32
14	4	-10	Jeff Gordon	160	—	Running	1	31
15	2	-13	Carl Edwards	160	—	Running	16	30
16	18	+2	Casey Mears	160	—	Running	—	28
17	7	-10	Brad Keselowski	160	—	Running	—	27
18	29	+11	Ty Dillon	160	—	Running	—	0
19	6	-13	Austin Dillon	160	—	Running	5	26
20	30	+10	Justin Allgaier	160	—	Running	—	24
21	28	+7	Tony Stewart	160	—	Running	—	23
22	23	+1	Clint Bowyer	160	—	Running	—	22
23	21	-2	David Ragan	160	—	Running	—	21
24	33	+9	Trevor Bayne	160	—	Running	—	20
25	32	+7	Landon Cassill	160	—	Running	—	0
26	34	+8	Alex Bowman	160	—	Running	—	18
27	35	+8	David Gilliland	160	—	Running	—	17
28	39	+11	Cole Whitt	160	—	Running	—	16
29	38	+9	Josh Wise	159	—	Running	—	15
30	36	+6	Brett Moffitt	158	—	Running	—	14
31	16	-15	Paul Menard	158	—	Running	—	13
32	41	+9	Matt DiBenedetto	158	—	Running	—	12
33	40	+7	Jeb Burton	158	—	Running	—	11
34	31	-3	Michael Annett	158	—	Running	—	10
35	42	+7	Travis Kvapil	157	—	Running	—	0
36	37	+1	J.J. Yeley	155	—	Running	—	0
37	22	-15	Danica Patrick	153	—	Running	—	7
38	26	-12	A.J. Allmendinger	143	—	Running	—	6
39	13	-26	Ryan Newman	141	—	Running	—	5
40	43	+3	Brendan Gaughan	129	—	DNF	—	0
41	24	-17	Sam Hornish Jr.	120	—	DNF	—	3
42	17	-25	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	105	—	DNF	—	2
43	25	-18	Aric Almirola	88	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.9 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	1	+14.4	Coinflip
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
4	Joey Logano	14.7	4	+10.7	Coinflip
8	Kyle Larson	12.7	8	+4.7	Coinflip
9	Kyle Busch	17.0	9	+8.0	Coinflip
10	Denny Hamlin	8.2	10	-1.8	High Confidence
16	Casey Mears	16.9	16	+0.9	Coinflip
17	Brad Keselowski	11.2	17	-5.8	Moderate
18	Ty Dillon	23.4	18	+5.4	High Confidence
19	Austin Dillon	17.1	19	-1.9	Coinflip
20	Justin Allgaier	18.3	20	-1.7	Coinflip
26	Alex Bowman	13.5	26	-12.5	Coinflip
36	J.J. Yeley	28.8	36	-7.2	High Confidence
38	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	38	-19.7	Moderate
42	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	42	-22.1	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Martin Truex, Jr.: has 34 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.

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