NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD
Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 24, 2016
Kyle Busch
Winner
170
Laps
40
Entries
3
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 24, 2016, leading 149 of 170 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
3 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 18 | +16 | Matt Kenseth |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 4 | 4 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 10 | +5 | Kyle Larson |
| 6 | 7 | +1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Joey Logano |
| 8 | 8 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Austin Dillon |
| 10 | 23 | +13 | Paul Menard |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Tony Stewart |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 13 | 21 | +8 | Jeff Gordon |
| 14 | 22 | +8 | Chris Buescher |
| 15 | 15 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Kurt Busch |
| 17 | 5 | -12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 18 | 26 | +8 | Kasey Kahne |
| 19 | 9 | -10 | Jamie McMurray |
| 20 | 33 | +13 | Landon Cassill |
| 21 | 31 | +10 | Clint Bowyer |
| 22 | 24 | +2 | Danica Patrick |
| 23 | 27 | +4 | Michael McDowell |
| 24 | 34 | +10 | Casey Mears |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Aric Almirola |
| 26 | 37 | +11 | Regan Smith |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | Brian Scott |
| 28 | 38 | +10 | Michael Annett |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Cole Whitt |
| 30 | 20 | -10 | Trevor Bayne |
| 31 | 6 | -25 | Ryan Newman |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | Ryan Ellis |
| 33 | 39 | +6 | Reed Sorenson |
| 34 | 40 | +6 | Patrick Carpentier |
| 35 | 2 | -33 | Carl Edwards |
| 36 | 17 | -19 | Ryan Blaney |
| 37 | 28 | -9 | David Ragan |
| 38 | 25 | -13 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 39 | 19 | -20 | Greg Biffle |
| 40 | 30 | -10 | Matt DiBenedetto |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 3 | +16.9 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 4 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 5 | +7.7 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 7 | +7.7 |
| 8 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 8 | +7.4 |
| 9 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 9 | +8.1 |
| 12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 12 | +7.9 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 14 | -4.8 |
| 15 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 15 | -7.2 |
| 17 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 17 | -5.8 |
| 23 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 23 | -6.0 |
| 24 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 24 | -7.1 |
| 36 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 36 | -26.8 |
| 38 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 38 | -19.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 23 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 10.3 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 9 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish, finishing P15 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 16 starts, 14.5 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD?
Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD held?
The 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD was held at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 24, 2016.