Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 19, 2017

Kyle Busch

Winner

505

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2017, leading 156 of 505 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 19, 2017

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2017

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	500	Winner	Running	156	53
2	38	+36	Erik Jones	Furniture Row Racing	500	—	Running	260	50
3	1	-2	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	500	—	Running	—	43
4	2	-2	Matt Kenseth	Joe Gibbs Racing	500	—	Running	11	49
5	8	+3	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	500	—	Running	—	32
6	11	+5	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	500	—	Running	1	38
7	26	+19	Trevor Bayne	Roush Fenway Racing	500	—	Running	—	30
8	3	-5	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	500	—	Running	—	37
9	10	+1	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	500	—	Running	70	41
10	15	+5	Ryan Blaney	Wood Brothers Racing	500	—	Running	—	31
11	25	+14	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	500	—	Running	—	36
12	18	+6	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	500	—	Running	—	25
13	28	+15	Joey Logano	Team Penske	500	—	Running	—	27
14	22	+8	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Roush Fenway Racing	500	—	Running	—	23
15	14	-1	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs Racing	500	—	Running	—	22
16	20	+4	Paul Menard	Richard Childress Racing	499	+1 Lap	Running	—	23
17	31	+14	David Ragan	Front Row Motorsports	499	+1 Lap	Running	—	20
18	7	-11	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	499	+1 Lap	Running	2	26
19	5	-14	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	499	+1 Lap	Running	—	19
20	16	-4	Michael McDowell	Leavine Family Racing	499	+1 Lap	Running	—	17
21	—	—	Chris Buescher	JTG-Daugherty Racing	505	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	Kurt Busch	Stewart Haas Racing	505	—	Running	—	15
23	—	—	Landon Cassill	Bob Jenkins	505	—	Running	—	14
24	—	—	Joey Logano	Roger Penske	504	—	Running	—	29
25	—	—	Cole Whitt	Bryan Smith	504	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	Erik Jones	Barney Visser	504	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	Chase Elliott	Rick Hendrick	504	—	Running	—	21
28	—	—	David Ragan	Bob Jenkins	503	—	Running	—	9
29	—	—	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi	503	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	501	—	Running	—	7
31	—	—	Gray Gaulding	BK Racing	501	—	Running	—	6
32	—	—	Reed Sorenson	Jay Robinson	500	—	Running	—	5
33	—	—	Corey LaJoie	BK Racing	500	—	Running	—	0
34	—	—	Hermie Sadler	Tommy Baldwin, Jr.	494	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	Kyle Weatherman	Rick Ware	488	—	Running	—	2
36	—	—	Carl Long	Carl Long	444	—	Accident	—	0
37	—	—	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi	300	—	Accident	—	1
38	—	—	Jeffrey Earnhardt	Joe Falk	274	—	Rear Gear	—	1
39	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	187	—	Electrical	—	1
40	—	—	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG-Daugherty Racing	94	—	Accident	—	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Kevin Harvick	1	1	—	20
Chase Elliott	2	2	—	18
Matt Kenseth	7	3	—	12
Kyle Larson	4	7	—	11
Denny Hamlin	6	6	—	10
Kurt Busch	8	5	—	9
Jamie McMurray	3	10	—	9
Kyle Busch	5	—	—	6
Jimmie Johnson	10	8	—	4
Ryan Blaney	—	9	—	2
Daniel Suarez	9	—	—	2
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Ryan Newman	—	—	—	—
Trevor Bayne	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
Clint Bowyer	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
Kurt Busch	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Cole Whitt	—	—	—	—
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Chase Elliott	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
Jamie McMurray	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Gray Gaulding	—	—	—	—
Reed Sorenson	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—
Hermie Sadler	—	—	—	—
Kyle Weatherman	—	—	—	—
Carl Long	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Jeffrey Earnhardt	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
A.J. Allmendinger	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	15.6	1	+14.6	Coinflip
2	Erik Jones	17.7	2	+15.7	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	6.8	3	+3.8	High Confidence
9	Kyle Larson	8.6	9	-0.4	Moderate
10	Ryan Blaney	6.8	10	-3.2	High Confidence
11	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	11	+6.7	Moderate
13	Joey Logano	12.1	13	-0.9	Coinflip
14	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	14	+6.1	Moderate
15	Daniel Suarez	15.6	15	+0.6	Coinflip
18	Chase Elliott	8.3	18	-9.7	High Confidence
20	Michael McDowell	15.0	20	-5.0	Coinflip
21	Chris Buescher	10.3	21	-10.7	Moderate
30	Ty Dillon	24.3	30	-5.7	High Confidence
33	Corey LaJoie	24.9	33	-8.1	High Confidence
40	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	40	-21.7	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 73 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 22 starts, 14.3 avg finish.

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