Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway, August 19, 2017
Kyle Busch
Winner
500
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2017, leading 156 of 500 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 19, 2017
Track
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | +17 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Erik Jones |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Matt Kenseth |
| 5 | 25 | +20 | Kurt Busch |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Ryan Newman |
| 7 | 20 | +13 | Trevor Bayne |
| 8 | 29 | +21 | Kevin Harvick |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | Kyle Larson |
| 10 | 10 | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 11 | 21 | +10 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | Jamie McMurray |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Joey Logano |
| 14 | 14 | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 15 | 12 | -3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 27 | +11 | Paul Menard |
| 17 | 19 | +2 | David Ragan |
| 18 | 4 | -14 | Chase Elliott |
| 19 | 9 | -10 | Clint Bowyer |
| 20 | 26 | +6 | Michael McDowell |
| 21 | 6 | -15 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 24 | 3 | -21 | Kasey Kahne |
| 25 | 24 | -1 | Danica Patrick |
| 26 | 34 | +8 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 27 | 15 | -12 | Chris Buescher |
| 28 | 35 | +7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 29 | 17 | -12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 30 | 30 | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 31 | 37 | +6 | Gray Gaulding |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | B.J. McLeod |
| 33 | 32 | -1 | Cole Whitt |
| 34 | 40 | +6 | Joey Gase |
| 35 | 33 | -2 | Landon Cassill |
| 36 | 22 | -14 | Ty Dillon |
| 37 | 28 | -9 | Aric Almirola |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Reed Sorenson |
| 39 | 16 | -23 | Austin Dillon |
| 40 | 38 | -2 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 2 | +15.7 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 9 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 10 | -3.2 |
| 11 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 11 | +7.0 |
| 13 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 13 | -2.7 |
| 14 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 14 | +6.4 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 15 | -1.0 |
| 18 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 18 | -8.1 |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 20 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 21 | -7.0 |
| 22 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 22 | -1.9 |
| 27 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 27 | -15.0 |
| 28 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 28 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 29 | -15.2 |
| 30 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 30 | -2.7 |
| 32 | B.J. McLeod | 24.9 | 32 | -7.1 |
| 34 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 34 | -12.0 |
| 36 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 36 | -12.9 |
| 39 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 39 | -21.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 76 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 26 starts, 15.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race?
Kyle Busch won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race held?
The 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2017.