AAA 400 Drive for Autism

Dover Motor Speedway, June 4, 2017

Jimmie Johnson
Winner
406
Laps
39
Entries
9
Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover Motor Speedway on June 4, 2017, leading 7 of 406 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, June 4, 2017
Season
2017
Leaders
9 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 14 +13 Jimmie Johnson
2 5 +3 Kyle Larson
3 2 -1 Martin Truex, Jr.
4 13 +9 Ryan Newman
5 16 +11 Chase Elliott
6 3 -3 Daniel Suarez
7 19 +12 Jamie McMurray
8 10 +2 Denny Hamlin
9 18 +9 Kevin Harvick
10 31 +21 Danica Patrick
11 11 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
12 4 -8 Matt Kenseth
13 9 -4 Austin Dillon
14 21 +7 Ty Dillon
15 7 -8 Erik Jones
16 1 -15 Kyle Busch
17 20 +3 Kasey Kahne
18 24 +6 A.J. Allmendinger
19 28 +9 Michael McDowell
20 36 +16 Ross Chastain
21 17 -4 Trevor Bayne
22 35 +13 Cole Whitt
23 29 +6 Chris Buescher
24 32 +8 Gray Gaulding
25 26 +1 Joey Logano
26 34 +8 Ryan Sieg
27 39 +12 Jeffrey Earnhardt
28 37 +9 Timmy Hill
29 25 -4 Matt DiBenedetto
30 33 +3 David Ragan
31 22 -9 Clint Bowyer
32 15 -17 Ryan Blaney
33 23 -10 Paul Menard
34 30 -4 Regan Smith
35 38 +3 Cody Ware
36 27 -9 Landon Cassill
37 6 -31 Kurt Busch
38 8 -30 Brad Keselowski
39 12 -27 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Jimmie Johnson 17.7 1 +16.7
2 Kyle Larson 9.9 2 +7.9
3 Martin Truex, Jr. 14.0 3 +11.0
5 Chase Elliott 8.3 5 +3.3
6 Daniel Suarez 15.6 6 +9.6
8 Denny Hamlin 6.8 8 -1.2
13 Austin Dillon 15.6 13 +2.6
14 Ty Dillon 24.3 14 +10.3
15 Erik Jones 17.7 15 +2.7
18 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 18 +0.3
19 Michael McDowell 14.7 19 -4.3
20 Ross Chastain 13.8 20 -6.2
23 Chris Buescher 10.3 23 -12.7
25 Joey Logano 12.6 25 -12.4
28 Timmy Hill 23.1 28 -4.9
32 Ryan Blaney 6.8 32 -25.2
35 Cody Ware 29.8 35 -5.2
38 Brad Keselowski 12.6 38 -25.4
39 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.2 39 -18.8

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Jimmie Johnson: has 9 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 9.6 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P8 on the day.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism?
Jimmie Johnson won the 2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism held?
The 2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism was held at Dover Motor Speedway on June 4, 2017.