AAA 400 Drive for Autism

Dover Motor Speedway — June 4, 2017

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

406

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover Motor Speedway on June 4, 2017, leading 7 of 406 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Track

Dover Motor Speedway

Season

2017

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	406	Winner	Running	7	55
2	25	+23	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	406	—	Running	241	50
3	6	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	406	—	Running	102	54
4	8	+4	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	406	—	Running	1	33
5	16	+11	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	406	—	Running	—	36
6	15	+9	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs Racing	406	—	Running	—	32
7	3	-4	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	406	—	Running	2	30
8	5	-3	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	406	—	Running	—	29
9	2	-7	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	406	—	Running	—	41
10	23	+13	Danica Patrick	Stewart-Haas Racing	406	—	Running	—	27
11	13	+2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	Hendrick Motorsports	406	—	Running	—	26
12	20	+8	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	406	—	Running	—	25
13	14	+1	Matt Kenseth	Joe Gibbs Racing	406	—	Running	—	39
14	28	+14	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	406	—	Running	27	23
15	9	-6	Erik Jones	Furniture Row Racing	405	DNF - Crash	Accident	—	27
16	1	-15	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	405	+1 Lap	Running	19	30
17	19	+2	Kasey Kahne	Hendrick Motorsports	404	DNF - Crash	Accident	—	26
18	39	+21	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG Daugherty Racing	404	DNF - Crash	Accident	—	19
19	24	+5	Michael McDowell	Leavine Family Racing	404	+2 Laps	Running	4	18
20	—	—	Ross Chastain	Premium Motorsports	403	+3 Laps	Running	—	0
21	—	—	Aric Almirola	Richard Petty Motorsports	90	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	Danica Patrick	Stewart Haas Racing	90	—	Running	—	15
23	—	—	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi	90	—	Running	—	21
24	—	—	Joey Logano	Roger Penske	90	—	Running	—	17
25	—	—	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress	90	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress	90	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	David Ragan	Bob Jenkins	90	—	Running	—	10
28	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	90	—	Running	—	9
29	—	—	Jimmie Johnson	Rick Hendrick	90	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Boris Said	Joe Falk	89	—	Running	—	7
31	—	—	Gary Klutt	Jay Robinson	89	—	Running	—	6
32	—	—	Brett Moffitt	BK Racing	89	—	Running	—	0
33	—	—	Corey LaJoie	BK Racing	89	—	Running	—	0
34	—	—	Cole Whitt	Bryan Smith	81	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	Trevor Bayne	Jack Roush	80	—	Running	—	2
36	—	—	Landon Cassill	Bob Jenkins	78	—	Running	—	1
37	—	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	Rick Hendrick	22	—	Engine	—	1
39	21	-18	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Roush Fenway Racing	62	DNF - Crash	accident	3	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Kyle Busch	1	1	—	20
Martin Truex, Jr.	2	2	—	18
Kevin Harvick	4	5	—	13
Matt Kenseth	6	6	—	10
Erik Jones	12	4	—	7
Jamie McMurray	7	10	—	5
Kyle Larson	8	12	—	3
Denny Hamlin	23	8	—	3
Jimmie Johnson	9	16	—	2
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	10	35	—	1
Ross Chastain	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Danica Patrick	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Ryan Newman	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
Jimmie Johnson	—	—	—	—
Boris Said	—	—	—	—
Gary Klutt	—	—	—	—
Brett Moffitt	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—
Cole Whitt	—	—	—	—
Trevor Bayne	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
2	Kyle Larson	8.6	2	+6.6	Moderate
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	3	+10.8	Coinflip
5	Chase Elliott	8.3	5	+3.3	High Confidence
6	Daniel Suarez	15.6	6	+9.6	Coinflip
8	Denny Hamlin	6.8	8	-1.2	High Confidence
12	Austin Dillon	17.0	12	+5.0	Coinflip
14	Ty Dillon	24.3	14	+10.3	High Confidence
15	Erik Jones	17.7	15	+2.7	Coinflip
16	Kyle Busch	15.6	16	-0.4	Coinflip
18	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	18	+0.3	Moderate
19	Michael McDowell	15.0	19	-4.0	Coinflip
20	Ross Chastain	13.8	20	-6.2	Coinflip
24	Joey Logano	12.1	24	-11.9	Coinflip
33	Corey LaJoie	24.9	33	-8.1	High Confidence
39	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	39	-18.9	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 8 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 9.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P8 on the day.

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