Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway, August 18, 2018
Kurt Busch
Winner
500
Laps
40
Entries
9
Leaders
Kurt Busch won the 2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 18, 2018, leading 24 of 500 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Chase Elliott rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 18, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +8 | Kurt Busch |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Chase Elliott |
| 4 | 19 | +15 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 14 | +9 | Erik Jones |
| 6 | 16 | +10 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | 22 | +14 | Alex Bowman |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 11 | 23 | +12 | Trevor Bayne |
| 12 | 24 | +12 | Ryan Newman |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 14 | 7 | -7 | Denny Hamlin |
| 15 | 26 | +11 | Kasey Kahne |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Brad Keselowski |
| 17 | 15 | -2 | David Ragan |
| 18 | 21 | +3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 19 | 28 | +9 | Chris Buescher |
| 20 | 3 | -17 | Kyle Busch |
| 21 | 32 | +11 | Ty Dillon |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 23 | 5 | -18 | William Byron |
| 24 | 12 | -12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 25 | 39 | +14 | Landon Cassill |
| 26 | 35 | +9 | Ross Chastain |
| 27 | 40 | +13 | Blake Jones |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Timmy Hill |
| 29 | 20 | -9 | Jamie McMurray |
| 30 | 17 | -13 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 31 | 8 | -23 | Aric Almirola |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Reed Sorenson |
| 34 | 30 | -4 | Corey LaJoie |
| 35 | 33 | -2 | Jesse Little |
| 36 | 4 | -32 | Paul Menard |
| 37 | 31 | -6 | Michael McDowell |
| 38 | 27 | -11 | Bubba Wallace |
| 39 | 25 | -14 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 40 | 38 | -2 | Gray Gaulding |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 2 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 3 | +6.9 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 4 | +6.3 |
| 5 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 5 | +12.7 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 7 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 8 | +7.6 |
| 9 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 9 | +9.0 |
| 13 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 13 | +4.7 |
| 14 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 14 | -7.2 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 16 | -2.2 |
| 18 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 18 | -4.0 |
| 19 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 19 | -7.0 |
| 21 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 21 | +2.1 |
| 23 | William Byron | 10.8 | 23 | -12.2 |
| 24 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 24 | -3.6 |
| 26 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 26 | -13.4 |
| 28 | Timmy Hill | 23.1 | 28 | -4.9 |
| 30 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 30 | -16.0 |
| 32 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 32 | -4.7 |
| 34 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 34 | -9.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kurt Busch: has 42 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 26 starts, 15.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race?
Kurt Busch won the 2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Richard Childress Racing.
Where was the 2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race held?
The 2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 18, 2018.