Bojangles' Southern 500
Darlington Raceway — September 2, 2018
Brad Keselowski
Winner
367
Laps
39
Entries
5
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 2, 2018, leading 24 of 367 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 2, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | +17 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 20 | +18 | Joey Logano |
| 3 | 34 | +31 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 3 | -1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 5 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 1 | -5 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 31 | +22 | Jamie McMurray |
| 10 | 10 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 11 | 11 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 12 | 12 | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 13 | 26 | +13 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 4 | -10 | Aric Almirola |
| 15 | 19 | +4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 16 | 21 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 30 | +13 | Paul Menard |
| 18 | 16 | -2 | David Ragan |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Ryan Newman |
| 20 | 14 | -6 | Michael McDowell |
| 21 | — | — | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 22 | — | — | Regan Smith |
| 23 | — | — | Chase Elliott |
| 24 | — | — | Ross Chastain |
| 25 | — | — | Cole Whitt |
| 26 | — | — | Landon Cassill |
| 27 | — | — | D.J. Kennington |
| 28 | — | — | Cody Ware |
| 29 | — | — | Paul Menard |
| 30 | — | — | Alex Bowman |
| 31 | — | — | Tanner Berryhill |
| 32 | — | — | Kurt Busch |
| 33 | — | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 34 | — | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 35 | — | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 36 | — | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 37 | — | — | Joey Logano |
| 38 | — | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 39 | — | — | Timmy Hill |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 3 | 1 | — | 18 |
| Kurt Busch | 1 | 3 | — | 18 |
| Aric Almirola | 4 | 4 | — | 14 |
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8 | 5 | — | 9 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 9 | — | 8 |
| Chase Elliott | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Austin Dillon | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Regan Smith | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Whitt | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| D.J. Kennington | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Tanner Berryhill | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 1 | +10.2 |
| 2 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 2 | +12.7 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 3 | +9.7 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 5 | +2.8 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 7 | +10.0 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 8 | +8.7 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 10 | -1.8 |
| 11 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 11 | +4.4 |
| 12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 12 | +7.9 |
| 13 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 13 | -3.8 |
| 15 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 15 | -5.8 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 16 | +1.1 |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 20 | -3.0 |
| 24 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 24 | -10.7 |
| 28 | Cody Ware | 56.1 | 28 | +28.1 |
| 30 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 30 | -16.5 |
| 36 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 36 | -22.0 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 38 | -9.2 |
| 39 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 39 | -15.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 31 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.7 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 23 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P5 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P28 vs predicted P56. Track history: 9 starts, 29.4 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 held?
The 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 2, 2018.