Overton's 400
Chicagoland Speedway — July 1, 2018
Kyle Busch
Winner
267
Laps
40
Entries
10
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Overton's 400 at Chicagoland Speedway on July 1, 2018, leading 59 of 267 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, July 1, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 6 | +3 | Kevin Harvick |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 16 | +11 | Clint Bowyer |
| 6 | 14 | +8 | Erik Jones |
| 7 | 7 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Joey Logano |
| 9 | 11 | +2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 10 | 22 | +12 | Alex Bowman |
| 11 | 21 | +10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 12 | 20 | +8 | Jamie McMurray |
| 13 | 4 | -9 | Paul Menard |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 15 | 24 | +9 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 12 | -4 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 17 | 9 | -8 | Kurt Busch |
| 18 | 10 | -8 | Ryan Blaney |
| 19 | 2 | -17 | Chase Elliott |
| 20 | 5 | -15 | William Byron |
| 21 | — | — | Ty Dillon |
| 22 | — | — | Austin Dillon |
| 23 | — | — | Aric Almirola |
| 24 | — | — | David Ragan |
| 25 | 8 | -17 | Aric Almirola |
| 26 | — | — | Ross Chastain |
| 27 | — | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 28 | — | — | Reed Sorenson |
| 29 | — | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 30 | — | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 31 | — | — | Landon Cassill |
| 32 | — | — | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 33 | — | — | Alex Bowman |
| 34 | — | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 35 | — | — | Timmy Hill |
| 36 | — | — | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 37 | 18 | -19 | Austin Dillon |
| 38 | — | — | Bubba Wallace |
| 39 | — | — | David Starr |
| 40 | — | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 1 | 5 | — | 16 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 2 | — | 16 |
| Kyle Larson | 6 | 3 | — | 13 |
| Clint Bowyer | 3 | 6 | — | 13 |
| Aric Almirola | 5 | 4 | — | 13 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | 1 | — | 12 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Erik Jones | 8 | 7 | — | 7 |
| Kurt Busch | 7 | 9 | — | 6 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 8 | — | 4 |
| Alex Bowman | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Sorenson | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| David Starr | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.2 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 2 | +10.7 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 4 | +11.4 |
| 6 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 6 | +10.7 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 7 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 8 | +6.7 |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 9 | +2.2 |
| 10 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 10 | +3.5 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 11 | +3.0 |
| 14 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 14 | +5.9 |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 16 | +3.9 |
| 18 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 18 | -8.8 |
| 19 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 19 | -11.2 |
| 20 | William Byron | 10.7 | 20 | -9.3 |
| 21 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 21 | +2.4 |
| 22 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 22 | -4.9 |
| 26 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 26 | -12.7 |
| 27 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 27 | -4.8 |
| 29 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 29 | -0.2 |
| 30 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 30 | -5.2 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 32 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 9.5 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 8.8 avg finish (1 win), finishing P19 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Overton's 400?
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Overton's 400 at Chicagoland Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2018 Overton's 400 held?
The 2018 Overton's 400 was held at Chicagoland Speedway on July 1, 2018.