Hollywood Casino 400
Kansas Speedway, October 21, 2018
Chase Elliott
Winner
267
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders
Chase Elliott won the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on October 21, 2018, leading 44 of 267 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Chase Elliott |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 27 | +24 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Erik Jones |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | 1 | -7 | Joey Logano |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 3 | -7 | Aric Almirola |
| 11 | 23 | +12 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 2 | -10 | Kevin Harvick |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Clint Bowyer |
| 14 | 9 | -5 | Denny Hamlin |
| 15 | 16 | +1 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 21 | +5 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 20 | +3 | Jamie McMurray |
| 18 | 11 | -7 | Kurt Busch |
| 19 | 28 | +9 | David Ragan |
| 20 | 15 | -5 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 21 | 25 | +4 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 22 | 22 | — | Jimmie Johnson |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 24 | 8 | -16 | Daniel Suarez |
| 25 | 30 | +5 | Ty Dillon |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 27 | 24 | -3 | Michael McDowell |
| 28 | 26 | -2 | Regan Smith |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Landon Cassill |
| 30 | 19 | -11 | Trevor Bayne |
| 31 | 36 | +5 | J.J. Yeley |
| 32 | 18 | -14 | Paul Menard |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | B.J. McLeod |
| 34 | 34 | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 35 | 37 | +2 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 36 | 39 | +3 | Reed Sorenson |
| 37 | 33 | -4 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 38 | 17 | -21 | William Byron |
| 39 | 32 | -7 | Ross Chastain |
| 40 | 40 | — | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 1 | +9.1 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 3 | +10.1 |
| 4 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 4 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 5 | +10.4 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 6 | +9.4 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 7 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 8 | +3.9 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 9 | +7.2 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 11 | +8.9 |
| 14 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 14 | -7.8 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 16 | -6.8 |
| 20 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 20 | -0.1 |
| 21 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 21 | -3.9 |
| 22 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 22 | -2.1 |
| 24 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 24 | -11.3 |
| 25 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 25 | -2.1 |
| 26 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 26 | -13.3 |
| 27 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 27 | -10.1 |
| 31 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 31 | -2.4 |
| 33 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 33 | -8.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Chase Elliott: has 23 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 9.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 40 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P15. Track history: 22 starts, 19.5 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400?
Chase Elliott won the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 held?
The 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 was held at Kansas Speedway on October 21, 2018.