Hollywood Casino 400

Kansas Speedway, October 21, 2018

Chase Elliott
Winner
267
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders

Chase Elliott won the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on October 21, 2018, leading 44 of 267 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 13 +12 Chase Elliott
2 7 +5 Kyle Busch
3 27 +24 Kyle Larson
4 6 +2 Erik Jones
5 12 +7 Martin Truex, Jr.
6 5 -1 Brad Keselowski
7 4 -3 Ryan Blaney
8 1 -7 Joey Logano
9 10 +1 Alex Bowman
10 3 -7 Aric Almirola
11 23 +12 Austin Dillon
12 2 -10 Kevin Harvick
13 14 +1 Clint Bowyer
14 9 -5 Denny Hamlin
15 16 +1 Ryan Newman
16 21 +5 Chris Buescher
17 20 +3 Jamie McMurray
18 11 -7 Kurt Busch
19 28 +9 David Ragan
20 15 -5 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
21 25 +4 A.J. Allmendinger
22 22 Jimmie Johnson
23 31 +8 Matt DiBenedetto
24 8 -16 Daniel Suarez
25 30 +5 Ty Dillon
26 29 +3 Bubba Wallace
27 24 -3 Michael McDowell
28 26 -2 Regan Smith
29 35 +6 Landon Cassill
30 19 -11 Trevor Bayne
31 36 +5 J.J. Yeley
32 18 -14 Paul Menard
33 38 +5 B.J. McLeod
34 34 Corey LaJoie
35 37 +2 Kyle Weatherman
36 39 +3 Reed Sorenson
37 33 -4 Jeffrey Earnhardt
38 17 -21 William Byron
39 32 -7 Ross Chastain
40 40 Timmy Hill
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Chase Elliott 10.1 1 +9.1
3 Kyle Larson 13.1 3 +10.1
4 Erik Jones 14.7 4 +10.7
5 Martin Truex, Jr. 15.4 5 +10.4
6 Brad Keselowski 15.4 6 +9.4
7 Ryan Blaney 8.2 7 +1.2
8 Joey Logano 11.9 8 +3.9
9 Alex Bowman 16.2 9 +7.2
11 Austin Dillon 19.9 11 +8.9
14 Denny Hamlin 6.2 14 -7.8
16 Chris Buescher 9.2 16 -6.8
20 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19.9 20 -0.1
21 A.J. Allmendinger 17.1 21 -3.9
22 Jimmie Johnson 19.9 22 -2.1
24 Daniel Suarez 12.7 24 -11.3
25 Ty Dillon 22.9 25 -2.1
26 Bubba Wallace 12.7 26 -13.3
27 Michael McDowell 16.9 27 -10.1
31 J.J. Yeley 28.6 31 -2.4
33 B.J. McLeod 24.7 33 -8.3

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Chase Elliott: has 23 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 9.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 40 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
  • Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P15. Track history: 22 starts, 19.5 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400?
Chase Elliott won the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 held?
The 2018 Hollywood Casino 400 was held at Kansas Speedway on October 21, 2018.