First Data 500
Martinsville Speedway — October 28, 2018
Joey Logano
Winner
500
Laps
21
Entries
6
Leaders
Joey Logano won the 2018 First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway on October 28, 2018, leading 309 of 500 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 6 | +4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 21 | +14 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 14 | +6 | Ryan Newman |
| 9 | 23 | +14 | Daniel Suarez |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 11 | 10 | -1 | Aric Almirola |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 25 | +11 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 15 | 32 | +17 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 26 | +10 | Jamie McMurray |
| 17 | 16 | -1 | Alex Bowman |
| 18 | 28 | +10 | David Ragan |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 5 | -15 | Ryan Blaney |
| 21 | 9 | -12 | Clint Bowyer |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 3 | 1 | — | 18 |
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 5 | — | 16 |
| Brad Keselowski | 2 | 4 | — | 16 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| Clint Bowyer | 5 | 2 | — | 15 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Kurt Busch | 8 | 7 | — | 7 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 7 | 8 | — | 7 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | 9 | — | 4 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 10 | — | 2 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 1 | +11.1 |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 2 | +4.8 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 3 | +10.8 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 4 | +11.6 |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 5 | +7.0 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 9 | +6.6 |
| 12 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 13 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 13 | -2.7 |
| 14 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 14 | +4.3 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 15 | +9.3 |
| 17 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 17 | -3.0 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 19 | +1.1 |
| 20 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 20 | -13.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Joey Logano: has 37 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P16. Track history: 52 starts, 12.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 First Data 500?
Joey Logano won the 2018 First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 First Data 500 held?
The 2018 First Data 500 was held at Martinsville Speedway on October 28, 2018.