FireKeepers Casino 400

Michigan International Speedway — June 10, 2018

Clint Bowyer

Winner

138

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Clint Bowyer won the 2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on June 10, 2018, leading 8 of 138 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2018

Winner

Clint Bowyer

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	18	+17	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	133	Winner	Running	8	57
2	15	+13	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	133	—	Running	49	52
3	36	+33	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	133	—	Running	46	46
4	2	-2	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	133	—	Running	—	40
5	37	+32	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers Racing	133	—	Running	3	38
6	17	+11	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	133	—	Running	—	40
7	6	-1	Joey Logano	Team Penske	133	—	Running	—	32
8	11	+3	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	133	—	Running	15	44
9	3	-6	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	133	—	Running	—	28
10	14	+4	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	133	—	Running	—	30
11	7	-4	Aric Almirola	Stewart-Haas Racing	133	—	Running	—	27
12	1	-11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	133	—	Running	—	31
13	16	+3	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	133	—	Running	—	28
14	24	+10	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	133	—	Running	—	23
15	9	-6	Erik Jones	Joe Gibbs Racing	133	—	Running	—	24
16	22	+6	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	133	—	Running	—	21
17	8	-9	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG Daugherty Racing	133	—	Running	—	20
18	4	-14	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	133	—	Running	—	19
19	29	+10	Bubba Wallace	Richard Petty Motorsports	133	—	Running	—	18
20	13	-7	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	133	—	Running	—	17
21	—	—	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi	0	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG-Daugherty Racing	0	—	Running	—	15
23	10	-13	Kasey Kahne	Leavine Family Racing	133	—	running	11	14
24	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	0	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Michael McDowell	Bob Jenkins	0	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	Kasey Kahne	Leavine Family Racing	0	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	David Ragan	Bob Jenkins	0	—	Running	—	10
28	5	-23	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	133	—	running	1	18
29	—	—	Landon Cassill	StarCom Racing	0	—	Running	—	0
30	—	—	Blake Jones	BK Racing	0	—	Running	—	7
31	—	—	B.J. McLeod	Rick Ware	0	—	Running	—	0
32	—	—	Garrett Smithley	Jay Robinson	0	—	Running	—	0
33	—	—	Gray Gaulding	StarCom Racing	0	—	Running	—	4
34	—	—	Trevor Bayne	Jack Roush	0	—	Engine	—	3
35	—	—	Ross Chastain	Jay Robinson	0	—	Axle	—	0
36	—	—	William Byron	Rick Hendrick	0	—	Running	—	1
37	—	—	Timmy Hill	Carl Long	138	—	Electrical	—	0
38	—	—	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	131	—	Accident	—	1
39	—	—	Jeffrey Earnhardt	Gaunt Brothers	102	—	Engine	—	1
40	—	—	Corey LaJoie	Bryan Smith	37	—	Engine	—	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Martin Truex, Jr.	1	5	—	16
Chase Elliott	—	1	—	10
Kyle Busch	—	2	—	9
Jimmie Johnson	2	—	—	9
Denny Hamlin	—	3	—	8
William Byron	3	—	—	8
Erik Jones	—	4	—	7
Brad Keselowski	5	—	—	6
Jamie McMurray	—	6	—	5
Kevin Harvick	—	7	—	4
Alex Bowman	7	—	—	4
Kyle Larson	—	8	—	3
Paul Menard	9	—	—	2
Ryan Blaney	—	9	—	2
Clint Bowyer	—	—	—	—
Kurt Busch	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
A.J. Allmendinger	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—
Jamie McMurray	—	—	—	—
A.J. Allmendinger	—	—	—	—
Kasey Kahne	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Kasey Kahne	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Blake Jones	—	—	—	—
B.J. McLeod	—	—	—	—
Garrett Smithley	—	—	—	—
Gray Gaulding	—	—	—	—
Trevor Bayne	—	—	—	—
Ross Chastain	—	—	—	—
William Byron	—	—	—	—
Timmy Hill	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Jeffrey Earnhardt	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 21 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.1 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Kyle Busch	17.0	4	+13.0	Coinflip
6	Brad Keselowski	11.2	6	+5.2	Moderate
7	Joey Logano	14.7	7	+7.7	Coinflip
8	Ryan Blaney	9.2	8	+1.2	High Confidence
9	Chase Elliott	7.8	9	-1.2	High Confidence
12	Denny Hamlin	8.2	12	-3.8	High Confidence
13	William Byron	10.7	13	-2.3	Moderate
14	Austin Dillon	17.1	14	+3.1	Coinflip
15	Erik Jones	16.7	15	+1.7	Coinflip
16	Alex Bowman	13.5	16	-2.5	Coinflip
17	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	17	+1.3	Moderate
18	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	18	-2.6	Coinflip
19	Bubba Wallace	12.7	19	-6.3	Coinflip
20	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	20	-0.1	Moderate
25	Michael McDowell	17.0	25	-8.0	Coinflip
28	Kyle Larson	12.7	28	-15.3	Coinflip
31	B.J. McLeod	24.8	31	-6.2	High Confidence
35	Ross Chastain	13.3	35	-21.7	Coinflip
37	Timmy Hill	23.9	37	-13.1	High Confidence
38	Ty Dillon	23.4	38	-14.6	High Confidence

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Clint Bowyer: has 32 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 17.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 17 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish, finishing P9 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 55 starts, 12.2 avg finish.

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