Can-Am 500
Phoenix Raceway — November 11, 2018
Kyle Busch
Winner
312
Laps
23
Entries
8
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 11, 2018, leading 117 of 312 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 3 | 6 | +3 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 19 | +15 | Aric Almirola |
| 5 | 39 | +34 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 31 | +25 | Jamie McMurray |
| 7 | — | — | Matt Kenseth |
| 8 | 21 | +13 | Austin Dillon |
| 9 | 11 | +2 | William Byron |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Bubba Wallace |
| 11 | 30 | +19 | Ryan Newman |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 13 | 25 | +12 | Denny Hamlin |
| 14 | 26 | +12 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 13 | -4 | Erik Jones |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Chris Buescher |
| 19 | 32 | +13 | Ty Dillon |
| 20 | 23 | +3 | David Ragan |
| 23 | 16 | -7 | Chase Elliott |
| 32 | 2 | -30 | Kurt Busch |
| 34 | 5 | -29 | Ryan Blaney |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 5 | — | 12 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 8 | 3 | — | 11 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 2 | — | 9 |
| Ryan Newman | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| Denny Hamlin | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Erik Jones | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Aric Almirola | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Kevin Harvick | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Austin Dillon | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Bubba Wallace | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Kurt Busch | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 1 | +14.6 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 2 | +10.0 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 3 | +5.6 |
| 8 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 8 | +9.0 |
| 9 | William Byron | 10.3 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 10 | +4.0 |
| 12 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 12 | +6.3 |
| 13 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 13 | -6.2 |
| 14 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 14 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 15 | +2.7 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 16 | -1.0 |
| 17 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 17 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 18 | -7.7 |
| 19 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 19 | +5.3 |
| 23 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 23 | -14.7 |
| 34 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 34 | -27.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 34 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.1 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (1 win), finishing P13 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Can-Am 500?
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2018 Can-Am 500 held?
The 2018 Can-Am 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 11, 2018.