Can-Am 500
Phoenix Raceway, November 11, 2018
Kyle Busch
Winner
312
Laps
39
Entries
8
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 11, 2018, leading 117 of 312 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Brad Keselowski |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 18 | +14 | Aric Almirola |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 21 | +15 | Jamie McMurray |
| 7 | 17 | +10 | Matt Kenseth |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Austin Dillon |
| 9 | 19 | +10 | William Byron |
| 10 | 30 | +20 | Bubba Wallace |
| 11 | 22 | +11 | Ryan Newman |
| 12 | 24 | +12 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 13 | 10 | -3 | Denny Hamlin |
| 14 | 13 | -1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 15 | 20 | +5 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 16 | 23 | +7 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 7 | -10 | Erik Jones |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | Chris Buescher |
| 19 | 28 | +9 | Ty Dillon |
| 20 | 31 | +11 | David Ragan |
| 21 | 27 | +6 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Regan Smith |
| 23 | 2 | -21 | Chase Elliott |
| 24 | 33 | +9 | Ross Chastain |
| 25 | 34 | +9 | Cole Whitt |
| 26 | 32 | +6 | Landon Cassill |
| 27 | 38 | +11 | D.J. Kennington |
| 28 | 39 | +11 | Cody Ware |
| 29 | 11 | -18 | Paul Menard |
| 30 | 5 | -25 | Alex Bowman |
| 31 | 36 | +5 | Tanner Berryhill |
| 32 | 14 | -18 | Kurt Busch |
| 33 | 3 | -30 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 34 | 4 | -30 | Ryan Blaney |
| 35 | 16 | -19 | Clint Bowyer |
| 36 | 26 | -10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 37 | 9 | -28 | Joey Logano |
| 38 | 35 | -3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 39 | 37 | -2 | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 2 | +11.8 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 3 | +7.3 |
| 8 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 8 | +9.7 |
| 9 | William Byron | 10.8 | 9 | +1.8 |
| 10 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 10 | +2.6 |
| 12 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 12 | +8.1 |
| 13 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 13 | -6.2 |
| 14 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 15 | +3.0 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 17 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 18 | -6.0 |
| 19 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 23 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 23 | -13.1 |
| 24 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 24 | -11.4 |
| 28 | Cody Ware | 37.3 | 28 | +9.3 |
| 30 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 30 | -14.4 |
| 33 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 33 | -12.6 |
| 34 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 34 | -27.2 |
| 36 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 36 | -22.0 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 37 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 8.3 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P13 on the day.
- Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P14. Track history: 28 starts, 14.8 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Can-Am 500?
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2018 Can-Am 500 held?
The 2018 Can-Am 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 11, 2018.