First Data 500
Martinsville Speedway, October 28, 2018
Joey Logano
Winner
500
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders
Joey Logano won the 2018 First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway on October 28, 2018, leading 309 of 500 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 3 | 33 | +30 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 6 | 6 | — | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 19 | +12 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Ryan Newman |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Aric Almirola |
| 12 | 34 | +22 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 13 | 13 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Ty Dillon |
| 16 | 17 | +1 | Jamie McMurray |
| 17 | 14 | -3 | Alex Bowman |
| 18 | 36 | +18 | David Ragan |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 4 | -16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 21 | 2 | -19 | Clint Bowyer |
| 22 | 35 | +13 | Paul Menard |
| 23 | 24 | +1 | Matt Kenseth |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Cole Whitt |
| 25 | 20 | -5 | Michael McDowell |
| 26 | 21 | -5 | Erik Jones |
| 27 | 29 | +2 | D.J. Kennington |
| 28 | 27 | -1 | Regan Smith |
| 29 | 22 | -7 | Ross Chastain |
| 30 | 25 | -5 | Austin Dillon |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | J.J. Yeley |
| 32 | 32 | — | Landon Cassill |
| 33 | 39 | +6 | Jeb Burton |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Bubba Wallace |
| 35 | 30 | -5 | Joey Gase |
| 36 | 26 | -10 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 37 | 9 | -28 | Kyle Larson |
| 38 | 40 | +2 | Timmy Hill |
| 39 | 11 | -28 | William Byron |
| 40 | 31 | -9 | Hermie Sadler |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 1 | +9.3 |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 2 | +4.8 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 3 | +11.0 |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 5 | +8.8 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 7 | +2.9 |
| 9 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 9 | +5.0 |
| 12 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 12 | +6.0 |
| 13 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 13 | -1.0 |
| 14 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 14 | +6.1 |
| 15 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 15 | +8.1 |
| 17 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 17 | -1.4 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 19 | +1.4 |
| 20 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 20 | -13.2 |
| 25 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 25 | -9.4 |
| 26 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 26 | -8.3 |
| 29 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 29 | -16.4 |
| 30 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 30 | -12.3 |
| 31 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 31 | -3.7 |
| 34 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 34 | -21.4 |
| 35 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 35 | -13.0 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Joey Logano: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.9 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P14. Track history: 38 starts, 16.2 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 First Data 500?
Joey Logano won the 2018 First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 First Data 500 held?
The 2018 First Data 500 was held at Martinsville Speedway on October 28, 2018.