Pocono 400

Pocono Raceway — June 3, 2018

Martin Truex, Jr.

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2018 Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway on June 3, 2018, leading 31 of 160 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 3, 2018

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2018

Winner

Martin Truex, Jr.

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	8	+7	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	160	Winner	Running	31	57
2	32	+30	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	160	—	Running	—	43
3	28	+25	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	160	—	Running	13	51
4	29	+25	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	160	—	Running	89	52
5	4	-1	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	160	—	Running	10	37
6	33	+27	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	160	—	Running	11	38
7	34	+27	Aric Almirola	Stewart-Haas Racing	160	—	Running	—	30
8	35	+27	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	160	—	Running	2	33
9	30	+21	Joey Logano	Team Penske	160	—	Running	—	28
10	6	-4	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	160	—	Running	—	38
11	36	+25	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers Racing	160	—	Running	—	26
12	37	+25	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	160	—	Running	—	25
13	11	-2	Matt Kenseth	Roush Fenway Racing	160	—	Running	—	24
14	17	+3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Roush Fenway Racing	160	—	Running	—	23
15	5	-10	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	160	—	Running	—	22
16	16	—	David Ragan	Front Row Motorsports	160	—	Running	—	21
17	12	-5	Chris Buescher	JTG Daugherty Racing	160	—	Running	—	20
18	38	+20	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	160	—	Running	—	19
19	7	-12	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	160	—	Running	—	18
20	31	+11	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	160	—	Running	—	32
21	—	—	Kasey Kahne	Leavine Family Racing	90	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	Aric Almirola	Stewart Haas Racing	90	—	Running	—	15
23	—	—	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	90	—	Running	—	14
24	—	—	Parker Kligerman	Gaunt Brothers	90	—	Running	—	0
25	—	—	Bubba Wallace	Richard Petty Motorsports	89	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	David Ragan	Bob Jenkins	89	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress	89	—	Running	—	10
28	—	—	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers	89	—	Running	—	11
29	—	—	Matt Kenseth	Jack Roush	89	—	Running	—	9
30	—	—	Jimmie Johnson	Rick Hendrick	89	—	Running	—	16
31	—	—	Landon Cassill	StarCom Racing	88	—	Running	—	0
32	—	—	Ross Chastain	Jay Robinson	77	—	Suspension	—	0
33	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	75	—	Running	—	4
34	—	—	Cole Whitt	Bryan Smith	73	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	Spencer Gallagher	BK Racing	73	—	Running	—	0
36	—	—	Josh Bilicki	Rick Ware	69	—	Electrical	—	0
37	—	—	Joey Logano	Roger Penske	1	—	Accident	—	1
38	39	+1	Bubba Wallace	Richard Petty Motorsports	108	DNF - Engine	engine	4	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Kevin Harvick	2	1	—	19
Chase Elliott	1	2	—	19
Clint Bowyer	6	3	—	13
Brad Keselowski	7	7	—	8
Kyle Busch	4	—	—	7
Kyle Larson	—	5	—	6
Jimmie Johnson	—	6	—	5
Ryan Blaney	10	9	—	3
Jamie McMurray	—	8	—	3
Kurt Busch	8	—	—	3
William Byron	—	10	—	1
Martin Truex, Jr.	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
Matt Kenseth	—	—	—	—
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
Kasey Kahne	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Parker Kligerman	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
Matt Kenseth	—	—	—	—
Jimmie Johnson	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Ross Chastain	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
Cole Whitt	—	—	—	—
Spencer Gallagher	—	—	—	—
Josh Bilicki	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.3 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	1	+14.4	Coinflip
2	Kyle Larson	12.7	2	+10.7	Coinflip
3	Kyle Busch	17.0	3	+14.0	Coinflip
5	Brad Keselowski	11.2	5	+6.2	Moderate
6	Ryan Blaney	9.2	6	+3.2	High Confidence
8	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	8	+11.9	Moderate
9	Joey Logano	14.7	9	+5.7	Coinflip
10	Chase Elliott	7.8	10	-2.2	High Confidence
12	Austin Dillon	17.1	12	+5.1	Coinflip
14	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	14	+5.9	Moderate
17	Chris Buescher	9.2	17	-7.8	High Confidence
18	William Byron	10.7	18	-7.3	Moderate
23	Ty Dillon	23.4	23	+0.4	High Confidence
25	Bubba Wallace	12.7	25	-12.3	Coinflip
32	Ross Chastain	13.3	32	-18.7	Coinflip
36	Josh Bilicki	28.6	36	-7.4	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Martin Truex, Jr.: has 34 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 16 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 7.9 avg finish (1 win), finishing P10 on the day.

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