Coca-Cola 600

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 27, 2018

Kyle Busch

Winner

400

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2018 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 27, 2018, leading 377 of 400 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2018

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

4 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	400	Winner	Running	377	70
2	2	—	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	400	—	Running	—	54
3	4	+1	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	400	—	Running	9	49
4	6	+2	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	400	—	Running	2	41
5	21	+16	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	400	—	Running	—	41
6	22	+16	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	400	—	Running	—	37
7	20	+13	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	400	—	Running	—	46
8	1	-7	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	400	—	Running	—	36
9	8	-1	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	400	—	Running	—	28
10	23	+13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Roush Fenway Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	31
11	10	-1	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	30
12	15	+3	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	35
13	13	—	Aric Almirola	Stewart-Haas Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	34
14	12	-2	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	23
15	9	-6	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	22
16	27	+11	Bubba Wallace	Richard Petty Motorsports	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	21
17	31	+14	Matt Kenseth	Roush Fenway Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	20
18	29	+11	Michael McDowell	Front Row Motorsports	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	19
19	7	-12	Erik Jones	Joe Gibbs Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	29
20	26	+6	Kasey Kahne	Leavine Family Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	21
21	—	—	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers	164	—	Running	—	16
22	19	-3	Joey Logano	Team Penske	399	+1 Lap	running	12	15
23	—	—	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi	164	—	Running	—	20
24	—	—	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	164	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Aric Almirola	Stewart Haas Racing	164	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	Joey Logano	Roger Penske	164	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	164	—	Running	—	10
28	—	—	J.J. Yeley	BK Racing	164	—	Running	—	0
29	—	—	Jeffrey Earnhardt	Gaunt Brothers	163	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Kasey Kahne	Leavine Family Racing	162	—	Running	—	7
31	—	—	Kyle Weatherman	StarCom Racing	161	—	Running	—	6
32	—	—	Reed Sorenson	Jay Robinson	161	—	Running	—	0
33	—	—	Bubba Wallace	Richard Petty Motorsports	153	—	Accident	—	4
34	—	—	Landon Cassill	StarCom Racing	148	—	Running	—	0
35	—	—	Ross Chastain	Jay Robinson	146	—	Running	—	0
36	—	—	Timmy Hill	Carl Long	142	—	Running	—	0
37	—	—	Chris Buescher	JTG-Daugherty Racing	123	—	Transmission	—	1
38	—	—	Brad Keselowski	Roger Penske	121	—	Accident	—	9
39	—	—	Corey LaJoie	Bryan Smith	95	—	Accident	—	1
40	—	—	B.J. McLeod	Rick Ware	77	—	Engine	—	0

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Chase Elliott	2	1	—	19
Martin Truex, Jr.	1	3	—	18
Kurt Busch	4	2	—	16
Jimmie Johnson	3	8	—	11
Kyle Busch	6	6	—	10
Clint Bowyer	8	7	—	7
Aric Almirola	10	5	—	7
Joey Logano	9	10	—	3
Denny Hamlin	—	—	—	—
Brad Keselowski	—	—	—	—
Jamie McMurray	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Alex Bowman	—	—	—	—
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—
Matt Kenseth	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Kasey Kahne	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
J.J. Yeley	—	—	—	—
Jeffrey Earnhardt	—	—	—	—
Kasey Kahne	—	—	—	—
Kyle Weatherman	—	—	—	—
Reed Sorenson	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Ross Chastain	—	—	—	—
Timmy Hill	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
Brad Keselowski	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—
B.J. McLeod	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 21 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	17.0	1	+16.0	Coinflip
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
4	Brad Keselowski	11.2	4	+7.2	Moderate
5	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	5	+14.9	Moderate
7	Kyle Larson	12.7	7	+5.7	Coinflip
9	Alex Bowman	13.5	9	+4.5	Coinflip
10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	10	+9.9	Moderate
11	Chase Elliott	7.8	11	-3.2	High Confidence
15	Daniel Suarez	14.0	15	-1.0	Coinflip
16	Bubba Wallace	12.7	16	-3.3	Coinflip
18	Michael McDowell	17.0	18	-1.0	Coinflip
19	Erik Jones	16.7	19	-2.3	Coinflip
22	Joey Logano	14.7	22	-7.3	Coinflip
24	Ty Dillon	23.4	24	-0.6	High Confidence
28	J.J. Yeley	28.8	28	+0.8	High Confidence
35	Ross Chastain	13.3	35	-21.7	Coinflip
36	Timmy Hill	23.9	36	-12.1	High Confidence
37	Chris Buescher	9.2	37	-27.8	High Confidence
39	Corey LaJoie	22.2	39	-16.8	High Confidence

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 68 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 8.4 avg finish (17 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P11 on the day.

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