Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway, February 17, 2019

Denny Hamlin
Winner
207
Laps
40
Entries
9
Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 17, 2019, leading 30 of 207 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Erik Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 17, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 10 +9 Denny Hamlin
2 31 +29 Kyle Busch
3 28 +25 Erik Jones
4 4 Joey Logano
5 34 +29 Michael McDowell
6 22 +16 Ty Dillon
7 26 +19 Kyle Larson
8 21 +13 Ryan Preece
9 17 +8 Jimmie Johnson
10 36 +26 Ross Chastain
11 2 -9 Alex Bowman
12 35 +23 Brad Keselowski
13 5 -8 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
14 19 +5 Ryan Newman
15 25 +10 Parker Kligerman
16 20 +4 Austin Dillon
17 18 +1 Chase Elliott
18 32 +14 Corey LaJoie
19 38 +19 B.J. McLeod
20 6 -14 Clint Bowyer
21 1 -20 William Byron
22 16 -6 Jamie McMurray
23 30 +7 Brendan Gaughan
24 27 +3 Landon Cassill
25 12 -13 Kurt Busch
26 3 -23 Kevin Harvick
27 39 +12 Tyler Reddick
28 9 -19 Matt DiBenedetto
29 7 -22 Paul Menard
30 24 -6 David Ragan
31 14 -17 Ryan Blaney
32 8 -24 Aric Almirola
33 23 -10 Daniel Suarez
34 29 -5 Daniel Hemric
35 11 -24 Martin Truex, Jr.
36 33 -3 Matt Tifft
37 15 -22 Chris Buescher
38 13 -25 Bubba Wallace
39 37 -2 Cody Ware
40 40 Casey Mears
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 25 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Denny Hamlin 15.1 1 +14.1
3 Erik Jones 16.0 3 +13.0
4 Joey Logano 18.5 4 +14.5
5 Michael McDowell 19.2 5 +14.2
6 Ty Dillon 22.9 6 +16.9
7 Kyle Larson 20.1 7 +13.1
8 Ryan Preece 21.1 8 +13.1
9 Jimmie Johnson 20.0 9 +11.0
10 Ross Chastain 16.0 10 +6.0
11 Alex Bowman 17.4 11 +6.4
12 Brad Keselowski 18.5 12 +6.5
13 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18.5 13 +5.5
16 Austin Dillon 21.1 16 +5.1
17 Chase Elliott 13.6 17 -3.4
18 Corey LaJoie 23.3 18 +5.3
19 B.J. McLeod 25.5 19 +6.5
21 William Byron 13.9 21 -7.1
27 Tyler Reddick 13.9 27 -13.1
31 Ryan Blaney 10.4 31 -20.6
33 Daniel Suarez 15.1 33 -17.9

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin: has 50 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P31 on the day.
  • Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 31 starts, 17.6 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2019 Daytona 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Daytona 500 held?
The 2019 Daytona 500 was held at Daytona International Speedway on February 17, 2019.