Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway, February 17, 2019
Denny Hamlin
Winner
207
Laps
40
Entries
9
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 17, 2019, leading 30 of 207 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Erik Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 17, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 31 | +29 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 28 | +25 | Erik Jones |
| 4 | 4 | — | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 34 | +29 | Michael McDowell |
| 6 | 22 | +16 | Ty Dillon |
| 7 | 26 | +19 | Kyle Larson |
| 8 | 21 | +13 | Ryan Preece |
| 9 | 17 | +8 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 10 | 36 | +26 | Ross Chastain |
| 11 | 2 | -9 | Alex Bowman |
| 12 | 35 | +23 | Brad Keselowski |
| 13 | 5 | -8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Ryan Newman |
| 15 | 25 | +10 | Parker Kligerman |
| 16 | 20 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Chase Elliott |
| 18 | 32 | +14 | Corey LaJoie |
| 19 | 38 | +19 | B.J. McLeod |
| 20 | 6 | -14 | Clint Bowyer |
| 21 | 1 | -20 | William Byron |
| 22 | 16 | -6 | Jamie McMurray |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Landon Cassill |
| 25 | 12 | -13 | Kurt Busch |
| 26 | 3 | -23 | Kevin Harvick |
| 27 | 39 | +12 | Tyler Reddick |
| 28 | 9 | -19 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 29 | 7 | -22 | Paul Menard |
| 30 | 24 | -6 | David Ragan |
| 31 | 14 | -17 | Ryan Blaney |
| 32 | 8 | -24 | Aric Almirola |
| 33 | 23 | -10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 34 | 29 | -5 | Daniel Hemric |
| 35 | 11 | -24 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 36 | 33 | -3 | Matt Tifft |
| 37 | 15 | -22 | Chris Buescher |
| 38 | 13 | -25 | Bubba Wallace |
| 39 | 37 | -2 | Cody Ware |
| 40 | 40 | — | Casey Mears |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 25 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 15.1 | 1 | +14.1 |
| 3 | Erik Jones | 16.0 | 3 | +13.0 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 18.5 | 4 | +14.5 |
| 5 | Michael McDowell | 19.2 | 5 | +14.2 |
| 6 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 6 | +16.9 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | 20.1 | 7 | +13.1 |
| 8 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 8 | +13.1 |
| 9 | Jimmie Johnson | 20.0 | 9 | +11.0 |
| 10 | Ross Chastain | 16.0 | 10 | +6.0 |
| 11 | Alex Bowman | 17.4 | 11 | +6.4 |
| 12 | Brad Keselowski | 18.5 | 12 | +6.5 |
| 13 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 13 | +5.5 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 21.1 | 16 | +5.1 |
| 17 | Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 17 | -3.4 |
| 18 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 18 | +5.3 |
| 19 | B.J. McLeod | 25.5 | 19 | +6.5 |
| 21 | William Byron | 13.9 | 21 | -7.1 |
| 27 | Tyler Reddick | 13.9 | 27 | -13.1 |
| 31 | Ryan Blaney | 10.4 | 31 | -20.6 |
| 33 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 33 | -17.9 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 50 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P31 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P23. Track history: 31 starts, 17.6 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Daytona 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Daytona 500 held?
The 2019 Daytona 500 was held at Daytona International Speedway on February 17, 2019.