GEICO 500

Talladega Superspeedway, April 28, 2019

Chase Elliott
Winner
188
Laps
40
Entries
15
Leaders

Chase Elliott won the 2019 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 28, 2019, leading 45 of 188 laps. Alex Bowman finished second; Ryan Preece rounded out the podium. The race featured 15 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 28, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
15 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 11 +10 Chase Elliott
2 9 +7 Alex Bowman
3 30 +27 Ryan Preece
4 8 +4 Joey Logano
5 5 Daniel Hemric
6 14 +8 Kurt Busch
7 24 +17 Ryan Newman
8 29 +21 Brendan Gaughan
9 2 -7 Aric Almirola
10 22 +12 Kyle Busch
11 36 +25 Corey LaJoie
12 16 +4 Daniel Suarez
13 4 -9 Brad Keselowski
14 1 -13 Austin Dillon
15 7 -8 Ryan Blaney
16 17 +1 Paul Menard
17 13 -4 Ty Dillon
18 37 +19 Reed Sorenson
19 27 +8 Erik Jones
20 20 Martin Truex, Jr.
21 25 +4 William Byron
22 33 +11 Jeffrey Earnhardt
23 15 -8 David Ragan
24 10 -14 Kyle Larson
25 6 -19 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
26 34 +8 Ross Chastain
27 35 +8 Parker Kligerman
28 40 +12 Cody Ware
29 3 -26 Clint Bowyer
30 31 +1 Chris Buescher
31 26 -5 Matt DiBenedetto
32 38 +6 Justin Haley
33 21 -12 Jimmie Johnson
34 32 -2 Landon Cassill
35 39 +4 Stanton Barrett
36 23 -13 Denny Hamlin
37 18 -19 Matt Tifft
38 19 -19 Kevin Harvick
39 28 -11 Bubba Wallace
40 12 -28 Michael McDowell
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Chase Elliott 13.6 1 +12.6
2 Alex Bowman 17.4 2 +15.4
3 Ryan Preece 21.1 3 +18.1
4 Joey Logano 18.5 4 +14.5
11 Corey LaJoie 23.3 11 +12.3
12 Daniel Suarez 15.1 12 +3.1
13 Brad Keselowski 18.5 13 +5.5
14 Austin Dillon 21.1 14 +7.1
15 Ryan Blaney 10.4 15 -4.6
17 Ty Dillon 22.9 17 +5.9
19 Erik Jones 16.0 19 -3.0
20 Martin Truex, Jr. 20.5 20 +0.5
21 William Byron 13.9 21 -7.1
24 Kyle Larson 20.1 24 -3.9
25 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18.5 25 -6.5
26 Ross Chastain 16.0 26 -10.0
28 Cody Ware 25.5 28 -2.5
30 Chris Buescher 13.6 30 -16.4
32 Justin Haley 23.4 32 -8.6
33 Jimmie Johnson 20.0 33 -13.0

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Chase Elliott: has 24 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P15 on the day.
  • Ryan Preece: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 15 starts, 18.4 avg finish.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2019 GEICO 500?
Chase Elliott won the 2019 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2019 GEICO 500 held?
The 2019 GEICO 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on April 28, 2019.