GEICO 500
Talladega Superspeedway, April 28, 2019
Chase Elliott
Winner
188
Laps
40
Entries
15
Leaders
Chase Elliott won the 2019 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 28, 2019, leading 45 of 188 laps. Alex Bowman finished second; Ryan Preece rounded out the podium. The race featured 15 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 28, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
15 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | +10 | Chase Elliott |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Alex Bowman |
| 3 | 30 | +27 | Ryan Preece |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 5 | — | Daniel Hemric |
| 6 | 14 | +8 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 24 | +17 | Ryan Newman |
| 8 | 29 | +21 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | Aric Almirola |
| 10 | 22 | +12 | Kyle Busch |
| 11 | 36 | +25 | Corey LaJoie |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 13 | 4 | -9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 14 | 1 | -13 | Austin Dillon |
| 15 | 7 | -8 | Ryan Blaney |
| 16 | 17 | +1 | Paul Menard |
| 17 | 13 | -4 | Ty Dillon |
| 18 | 37 | +19 | Reed Sorenson |
| 19 | 27 | +8 | Erik Jones |
| 20 | 20 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 21 | 25 | +4 | William Byron |
| 22 | 33 | +11 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 23 | 15 | -8 | David Ragan |
| 24 | 10 | -14 | Kyle Larson |
| 25 | 6 | -19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 26 | 34 | +8 | Ross Chastain |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Parker Kligerman |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | Cody Ware |
| 29 | 3 | -26 | Clint Bowyer |
| 30 | 31 | +1 | Chris Buescher |
| 31 | 26 | -5 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 32 | 38 | +6 | Justin Haley |
| 33 | 21 | -12 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 34 | 32 | -2 | Landon Cassill |
| 35 | 39 | +4 | Stanton Barrett |
| 36 | 23 | -13 | Denny Hamlin |
| 37 | 18 | -19 | Matt Tifft |
| 38 | 19 | -19 | Kevin Harvick |
| 39 | 28 | -11 | Bubba Wallace |
| 40 | 12 | -28 | Michael McDowell |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 1 | +12.6 |
| 2 | Alex Bowman | 17.4 | 2 | +15.4 |
| 3 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 3 | +18.1 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 18.5 | 4 | +14.5 |
| 11 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 11 | +12.3 |
| 12 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 12 | +3.1 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski | 18.5 | 13 | +5.5 |
| 14 | Austin Dillon | 21.1 | 14 | +7.1 |
| 15 | Ryan Blaney | 10.4 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 17 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 17 | +5.9 |
| 19 | Erik Jones | 16.0 | 19 | -3.0 |
| 20 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.5 | 20 | +0.5 |
| 21 | William Byron | 13.9 | 21 | -7.1 |
| 24 | Kyle Larson | 20.1 | 24 | -3.9 |
| 25 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 25 | -6.5 |
| 26 | Ross Chastain | 16.0 | 26 | -10.0 |
| 28 | Cody Ware | 25.5 | 28 | -2.5 |
| 30 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 30 | -16.4 |
| 32 | Justin Haley | 23.4 | 32 | -8.6 |
| 33 | Jimmie Johnson | 20.0 | 33 | -13.0 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Chase Elliott: has 24 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P15 on the day.
- Ryan Preece: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 15 starts, 18.4 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 GEICO 500?
Chase Elliott won the 2019 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2019 GEICO 500 held?
The 2019 GEICO 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on April 28, 2019.