Season Finale 500

Phoenix Raceway — November 8, 2020

Chase Elliott
Winner
312
Laps
21
Entries
9
Leaders

Chase Elliott won the 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 8, 2020, leading 153 of 312 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 8, 2020
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 6 +5 Chase Elliott
2 1 -1 Brad Keselowski
3 3 Joey Logano
4 10 +6 Denny Hamlin
5 24 +19 Jimmie Johnson
6 4 -2 Ryan Blaney
7 8 +1 Kevin Harvick
8 9 +1 Matt DiBenedetto
9 13 +4 William Byron
10 5 -5 Martin Truex, Jr.
11 7 -4 Kyle Busch
12 12 Kurt Busch
13 2 -11 Aric Almirola
14 23 +9 Clint Bowyer
15 36 +21 Bubba Wallace
16 11 -5 Alex Bowman
17 35 +18 Christopher Bell
18 20 +2 Austin Dillon
19 21 +2 Tyler Reddick
20 19 -1 Chris Buescher
27 16 -11 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Chase Elliott 1 1 20
Joey Logano 5 4 13
Kevin Harvick 6 3 13
Denny Hamlin 8 2 12
Brad Keselowski 3 9 10
Ryan Blaney 2 39 9
Aric Almirola 4 21 7
Kyle Busch 17 5 6
Clint Bowyer 12 6 5
Matt DiBenedetto 7 27 4
William Byron 16 7 4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 9 34 2
Jimmie Johnson 10 13 1
Chris Buescher 28 10 1
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Chase Elliott 8.3 1 +7.3
2 Brad Keselowski 12.0 2 +10.0
3 Joey Logano 12.1 3 +9.1
4 Denny Hamlin 6.8 4 +2.8
5 Jimmie Johnson 17.7 5 +12.7
6 Ryan Blaney 6.8 6 +0.8
9 William Byron 10.3 9 +1.3
10 Martin Truex, Jr. 13.8 10 +3.8
11 Kyle Busch 15.6 11 +4.6
15 Bubba Wallace 14.0 15 -1.0
16 Alex Bowman 14.0 16 -2.0
17 Christopher Bell 8.6 17 -8.4
18 Austin Dillon 17.0 18 -1.0
19 Tyler Reddick 9.9 19 -9.1
20 Chris Buescher 10.3 20 -9.7
27 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.1 27 -6.9

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Chase Elliott: has 18 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (1 win), finishing P4 on the day.
  • Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 11 starts, 16.4 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2020 Season Finale 500?
Chase Elliott won the 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2020 Season Finale 500 held?
The 2020 Season Finale 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 8, 2020.