Federated Auto Parts 400

Richmond Raceway — September 12, 2020

Brad Keselowski
Winner
400
Laps
21
Entries
9
Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway on September 12, 2020, leading 192 of 400 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 12, 2020
Season
2020
Leaders
9 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 3 +2 Brad Keselowski
2 6 +4 Martin Truex, Jr.
3 2 -1 Joey Logano
4 12 +8 Austin Dillon
5 4 -1 Chase Elliott
6 9 +3 Kyle Busch
7 1 -6 Kevin Harvick
8 13 +5 Aric Almirola
9 5 -4 Alex Bowman
10 21 +11 Clint Bowyer
11 19 +8 Tyler Reddick
12 7 -5 Denny Hamlin
13 8 -5 Kurt Busch
14 16 +2 Cole Custer
15 15 Christopher Bell
16 32 +16 Matt Kenseth
17 14 -3 Matt DiBenedetto
18 22 +4 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
19 10 -9 Ryan Blaney
20 29 +9 Ryan Preece
33 31 -2 Brennan Poole
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Martin Truex, Jr. 2 2 18
Clint Bowyer 1 8 13
Ryan Blaney 4 5 13
Kyle Busch 12 1 10
Alex Bowman 17 3 8
Brad Keselowski 16 4 7
Austin Dillon 9 7 6
Christopher Bell 18 6 5
Chase Elliott 7 27 4
Joey Logano 8 15 3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 21 9 2
Kevin Harvick 15 10 1
Matt DiBenedetto 10 18 1
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Brad Keselowski 12.0 1 +11.0
2 Martin Truex, Jr. 13.8 2 +11.8
3 Joey Logano 12.1 3 +9.1
4 Austin Dillon 17.0 4 +13.0
5 Chase Elliott 8.3 5 +3.3
6 Kyle Busch 15.6 6 +9.6
9 Alex Bowman 14.0 9 +5.0
11 Tyler Reddick 9.9 11 -1.1
12 Denny Hamlin 6.8 12 -5.2
14 Cole Custer 23.0 14 +9.0
15 Christopher Bell 8.6 15 -6.4
18 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.1 18 +2.1
19 Ryan Blaney 6.8 19 -12.2
20 Ryan Preece 10.8 20 -9.2
33 Brennan Poole 23.1 33 -9.9

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brad Keselowski: has 26 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 14.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
  • Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 18 starts, 16.8 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400?
Brad Keselowski won the 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 held?
The 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 was held at Richmond Raceway on September 12, 2020.