The Real Heroes 400
Darlington Raceway — May 17, 2020
Kevin Harvick
Winner
293
Laps
22
Entries
5
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway on May 17, 2020, leading 159 of 293 laps. Alex Bowman finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 17, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Alex Bowman |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Kurt Busch |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Chase Elliott |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 1 | -5 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 18 | +10 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 22 | +13 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | Matt Kenseth |
| 11 | 17 | +6 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Aric Almirola |
| 13 | 6 | -7 | Brad Keselowski |
| 14 | 23 | +9 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 12 | -4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 17 | 10 | -7 | Clint Bowyer |
| 18 | 9 | -9 | Joey Logano |
| 19 | 33 | +14 | Ty Dillon |
| 20 | 31 | +11 | Ryan Preece |
| 35 | 19 | -16 | William Byron |
| 38 | 4 | -34 | Jimmie Johnson |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | 2 | — | 14 |
| Joey Logano | 3 | 6 | — | 13 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7 | 4 | — | 11 |
| Tyler Reddick | 1 | 13 | — | 10 |
| Alex Bowman | 2 | 16 | — | 9 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 15 | — | 7 |
| Kurt Busch | 8 | 26 | — | 3 |
| Chase Elliott | 9 | 17 | — | 2 |
| William Byron | 10 | 10 | — | 2 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 2 | +11.5 |
| 4 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 4 | +3.8 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 6 | +9.4 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 7 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 8 | +8.7 |
| 9 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.1 | 9 | +10.1 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 11 | +6.1 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 13 | -1.8 |
| 16 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 16 | -6.8 |
| 18 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 18 | -3.3 |
| 19 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 19 | +4.4 |
| 20 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 20 | -9.9 |
| 35 | William Byron | 10.7 | 35 | -24.3 |
| 38 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 38 | -18.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 49 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P7 on the day.
- Alex Bowman: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P14. Track history: 16 starts, 20.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 The Real Heroes 400?
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2020 The Real Heroes 400 held?
The 2020 The Real Heroes 400 was held at Darlington Raceway on May 17, 2020.