The Real Heroes 400
Darlington Raceway, May 17, 2020
Kevin Harvick
Winner
293
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway on May 17, 2020, leading 159 of 293 laps. Alex Bowman finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 17, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 2 | — | Alex Bowman |
| 3 | 22 | +19 | Kurt Busch |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Chase Elliott |
| 5 | 10 | +5 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 15 | +9 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 29 | +22 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 34 | +25 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Matt Kenseth |
| 11 | 16 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 5 | -7 | Aric Almirola |
| 13 | 1 | -12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 14 | 3 | -11 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 7 | -9 | Ryan Blaney |
| 17 | 13 | -4 | Clint Bowyer |
| 18 | 9 | -9 | Joey Logano |
| 19 | 33 | +14 | Ty Dillon |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | Ryan Preece |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Bubba Wallace |
| 22 | 14 | -8 | Cole Custer |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Michael McDowell |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | Christopher Bell |
| 25 | 37 | +12 | Daniel Suarez |
| 26 | 4 | -22 | Kyle Busch |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Brennan Poole |
| 28 | 30 | +2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Reed Sorenson |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | Joey Gase |
| 31 | 19 | -12 | Corey LaJoie |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | Chris Buescher |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | 40 | +6 | Josh Bilicki |
| 35 | 18 | -17 | William Byron |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | Quin Houff |
| 37 | 26 | -11 | Garrett Smithley |
| 38 | 8 | -30 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 39 | 39 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 40 | 23 | -17 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bowman | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 1 | — | 16 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 4 | — | 14 |
| Denny Hamlin | 2 | 9 | — | 11 |
| Clint Bowyer | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| William Byron | 1 | — | — | 10 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | 3 | — | 8 |
| Kurt Busch | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Aric Almirola | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Ryan Preece | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Tyler Reddick | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Joey Logano | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Ryan Newman | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Chase Elliott | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Erik Jones | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Sorenson | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 2 | +14.2 |
| 4 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 4 | +6.1 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 5 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 6 | +9.4 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 7 | +4.2 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 8 | +6.7 |
| 9 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 9 | +9.3 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 11 | +8.9 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 13 | +2.4 |
| 16 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 16 | -7.8 |
| 18 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 18 | -6.1 |
| 19 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 19 | +3.9 |
| 20 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 20 | -6.7 |
| 21 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 21 | -8.3 |
| 22 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 22 | 0.0 |
| 23 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 23 | -6.1 |
| 24 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 24 | -14.8 |
| 25 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 25 | -12.3 |
| 27 | Brennan Poole | 23.4 | 27 | -3.6 |
| 28 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 28 | +0.6 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 49 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
- Alex Bowman: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P16. Track history: 17 starts, 20.3 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 The Real Heroes 400?
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2020 The Real Heroes 400 held?
The 2020 The Real Heroes 400 was held at Darlington Raceway on May 17, 2020.