Cook Out Southern 500
Darlington Raceway, September 6, 2020
Kevin Harvick
Winner
367
Laps
39
Entries
6
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 6, 2020, leading 32 of 367 laps. Austin Dillon finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 6, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Austin Dillon |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Joey Logano |
| 4 | 30 | +26 | Erik Jones |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | William Byron |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Alex Bowman |
| 7 | 15 | +8 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Aric Almirola |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Clint Bowyer |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 12 | 14 | +2 | Cole Custer |
| 13 | 2 | -11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 14 | 26 | +12 | Matt Kenseth |
| 15 | 31 | +16 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 35 | +18 | Ryan Preece |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 19 | 29 | +10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 1 | -19 | Chase Elliott |
| 21 | 11 | -10 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 22 | 6 | -16 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 23 | 24 | +1 | Tyler Reddick |
| 24 | 7 | -17 | Ryan Blaney |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 26 | 20 | -6 | Chris Buescher |
| 27 | 25 | -2 | Ty Dillon |
| 28 | 23 | -5 | Brennan Poole |
| 29 | 34 | +5 | Ross Chastain |
| 30 | 37 | +7 | J.J. Yeley |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Quin Houff |
| 32 | 38 | +6 | Josh Bilicki |
| 33 | 39 | +6 | Joey Gase |
| 34 | 21 | -13 | Christopher Bell |
| 35 | 33 | -2 | Timmy Hill |
| 36 | 18 | -18 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 37 | 27 | -10 | Corey LaJoie |
| 38 | 17 | -21 | Bubba Wallace |
| 39 | 36 | -3 | James Davison |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 2 | — | 16 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 2 | 5 | — | 15 |
| Alex Bowman | 6 | 4 | — | 12 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 3 | — | 9 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | — | — | 8 |
| Kyle Busch | 9 | 6 | — | 7 |
| Kurt Busch | 5 | 10 | — | 7 |
| Joey Logano | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Erik Jones | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Austin Dillon | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| William Byron | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 2 | +17.9 |
| 3 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 3 | +8.9 |
| 4 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 4 | +10.7 |
| 5 | William Byron | 10.7 | 5 | +5.7 |
| 6 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 6 | +10.2 |
| 11 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 11 | +4.4 |
| 12 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 12 | +10.0 |
| 13 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 13 | -6.8 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 16 | +0.9 |
| 17 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 17 | -3.7 |
| 18 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 18 | +1.9 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 19 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 20 | -9.9 |
| 22 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 22 | -6.6 |
| 23 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 23 | -11.8 |
| 24 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 24 | -15.8 |
| 25 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 25 | -12.3 |
| 26 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 26 | -16.8 |
| 27 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 27 | -4.1 |
| 28 | Brennan Poole | 23.4 | 28 | -4.6 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 49 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P13 on the day.
- Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 15.5 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Cook Out Southern 500?
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2020 Cook Out Southern 500 held?
The 2020 Cook Out Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 6, 2020.