NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA
Daytona International Speedway — February 15, 2020
Noah Gragson
Winner
120
Laps
36
Entries
8
Leaders
Noah Gragson won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway on February 15, 2020, leading 15 of 120 laps. Harrison Burton finished second; Timmy Hill rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, February 15, 2020
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | +11 | Noah Gragson |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Harrison Burton |
| 3 | 26 | +23 | Timmy Hill |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Brandon Jones |
| 5 | 10 | +5 | Chase Briscoe |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Justin Haley |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Brandon Brown |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 9 | 9 | — | Ryan Sieg |
| 10 | 19 | +9 | Alex Labbe |
| 11 | 2 | -9 | Michael Annett |
| 12 | 34 | +22 | J.J. Yeley |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | B.J. McLeod |
| 14 | 25 | +11 | Vinnie Miller |
| 15 | 36 | +21 | Joe Nemechek |
| 16 | 35 | +19 | Mike Harmon |
| 17 | 20 | +3 | Robby Lyons |
| 18 | 31 | +13 | David Starr |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Jesse Little |
| 20 | 33 | +13 | Chad Finchum |
| 21 | 32 | +11 | Josh Bilicki |
| 22 | 23 | +1 | Ross Chastain |
| 23 | 4 | -19 | Jeb Burton |
| 24 | 24 | — | Brett Moffitt |
| 25 | 15 | -10 | Austin Cindric |
| 26 | 17 | -9 | Josh Williams |
| 27 | 21 | -6 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 28 | 29 | +1 | Jeremy Clements |
| 29 | 14 | -15 | Caesar Bacarella |
| 30 | 13 | -17 | Justin Allgaier |
| 31 | 30 | -1 | Matt Mills |
| 32 | 7 | -25 | Riley Herbst |
| 33 | 1 | -32 | Myatt Snider |
| 34 | 27 | -7 | Chris Cockrum |
| 35 | 28 | -7 | Austin Hill |
| 36 | 5 | -31 | Joe Graf Jr. |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Gragson | 24.0 | 1 | +23.0 |
| 3 | Timmy Hill | 22.8 | 3 | +19.8 |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | 21.7 | 5 | +16.7 |
| 6 | Justin Haley | 23.4 | 6 | +17.4 |
| 12 | J.J. Yeley | 25.2 | 12 | +13.2 |
| 13 | B.J. McLeod | 25.5 | 13 | +12.5 |
| 18 | David Starr | 21.1 | 18 | +3.1 |
| 20 | Chad Finchum | 22.9 | 20 | +2.9 |
| 21 | Josh Bilicki | 25.5 | 21 | +4.5 |
| 22 | Ross Chastain | 17.4 | 22 | -4.6 |
| 25 | Austin Cindric | 20.1 | 25 | -4.9 |
| 30 | Justin Allgaier | 21.1 | 30 | -8.9 |
| 32 | Riley Herbst | 23.7 | 32 | -8.3 |
| 35 | Austin Hill | 24.0 | 35 | -11.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Noah Gragson: has 17 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ross Chastain: was the model’s top pick based on 32 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.0 avg finish (1 win), finishing P22 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA?
Noah Gragson won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway.
Where was the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA held?
The 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT DAYTONA was held at Daytona International Speedway on February 15, 2020.