Season Finale 500
Phoenix Raceway — November 8, 2020
Chase Elliott
Winner
312
Laps
21
Entries
9
Leaders
Chase Elliott won the 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 8, 2020, leading 153 of 312 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 8, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Chase Elliott |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 3 | 3 | — | Joey Logano |
| 4 | 10 | +6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 24 | +19 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | William Byron |
| 10 | 5 | -5 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 11 | 7 | -4 | Kyle Busch |
| 12 | 12 | — | Kurt Busch |
| 13 | 2 | -11 | Aric Almirola |
| 14 | 23 | +9 | Clint Bowyer |
| 15 | 36 | +21 | Bubba Wallace |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 35 | +18 | Christopher Bell |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Austin Dillon |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Tyler Reddick |
| 20 | 19 | -1 | Chris Buescher |
| 27 | 16 | -11 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 4 | — | 13 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 3 | — | 13 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8 | 2 | — | 12 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 9 | — | 10 |
| Ryan Blaney | 2 | 39 | — | 9 |
| Aric Almirola | 4 | 21 | — | 7 |
| Kyle Busch | 17 | 5 | — | 6 |
| Clint Bowyer | 12 | 6 | — | 5 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 7 | 27 | — | 4 |
| William Byron | 16 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 9 | 34 | — | 2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 13 | — | 1 |
| Chris Buescher | 28 | 10 | — | 1 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 1 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 2 | +10.0 |
| 3 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 3 | +9.1 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 5 | +12.7 |
| 6 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 9 | William Byron | 10.3 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 10 | +3.8 |
| 11 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 11 | +4.6 |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 15 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 16 | -2.0 |
| 17 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 17 | -8.4 |
| 18 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 18 | -1.0 |
| 19 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 19 | -9.1 |
| 20 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 20 | -9.7 |
| 27 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 27 | -6.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Chase Elliott: has 18 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (1 win), finishing P4 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 11 starts, 16.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Season Finale 500?
Chase Elliott won the 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2020 Season Finale 500 held?
The 2020 Season Finale 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 8, 2020.