Buschy McBusch Race 400
Kansas Speedway, May 2, 2021
Kyle Busch
Winner
267
Laps
39
Entries
6
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2021 Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway on May 2, 2021, leading 20 of 267 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +8 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 5 | 17 | +12 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 15 | +9 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Chris Buescher |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | William Byron |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Austin Dillon |
| 11 | 21 | +10 | Daniel Suarez |
| 12 | 20 | +8 | Denny Hamlin |
| 13 | 3 | -10 | Michael McDowell |
| 14 | 24 | +10 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 28 | +13 | Kurt Busch |
| 16 | 14 | -2 | Ryan Newman |
| 17 | 29 | +12 | Joey Logano |
| 18 | 25 | +7 | Alex Bowman |
| 19 | 32 | +13 | Kyle Larson |
| 20 | 19 | -1 | Chase Briscoe |
| 21 | 7 | -14 | Ryan Blaney |
| 22 | 38 | +16 | Austin Cindric |
| 23 | 22 | -1 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 24 | 10 | -14 | Cole Custer |
| 25 | 27 | +2 | Erik Jones |
| 26 | 13 | -13 | Bubba Wallace |
| 27 | 26 | -1 | Corey LaJoie |
| 28 | 8 | -20 | Christopher Bell |
| 29 | 18 | -11 | Aric Almirola |
| 30 | 31 | +1 | Justin Haley |
| 31 | 30 | -1 | B.J. McLeod |
| 32 | 12 | -20 | Ryan Preece |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Garrett Smithley |
| 34 | 23 | -11 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 35 | 35 | — | Joey Gase |
| 36 | 33 | -3 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 34 | -3 | Quin Houff |
| 38 | 39 | +1 | Matt Mills |
| 39 | 37 | -2 | Josh Bilicki |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 4 | — | 14 |
| Chase Elliott | 6 | 5 | — | 11 |
| Tyler Reddick | 3 | 8 | — | 11 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9 | 3 | — | 10 |
| Ryan Blaney | 8 | 6 | — | 8 |
| William Byron | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7 | 10 | — | 5 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Christopher Bell | 10 | 9 | — | 3 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Cindric | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Mills | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 30 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.2 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 5 | +5.1 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 6 | +9.4 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 7 | +4.2 |
| 8 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 8 | +1.2 |
| 9 | William Byron | 10.7 | 9 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 10 | +9.9 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 11 | +1.7 |
| 12 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 12 | -5.8 |
| 13 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 13 | +3.9 |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 14 | +0.5 |
| 17 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 17 | -5.1 |
| 18 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 18 | -1.8 |
| 19 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 19 | -5.9 |
| 20 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 20 | -12.2 |
| 21 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 21 | -12.8 |
| 22 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 22 | -6.6 |
| 23 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 23 | -1.6 |
| 24 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 24 | -2.0 |
| 25 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 25 | -10.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 55 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 13.6 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 40 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P36 vs predicted P57. Track history: 9 starts, 32.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Buschy McBusch Race 400?
Kyle Busch won the 2021 Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2021 Buschy McBusch Race 400 held?
The 2021 Buschy McBusch Race 400 was held at Kansas Speedway on May 2, 2021.