GEICO 500
Talladega Superspeedway — April 25, 2021
Brad Keselowski
Winner
191
Laps
24
Entries
17
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2021 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 25, 2021, leading 1 of 191 laps. William Byron finished second; Michael McDowell rounded out the podium. The race featured 17 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 25, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
17 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | +17 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 2 | — | William Byron |
| 3 | 17 | +14 | Michael McDowell |
| 4 | 3 | -1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 21 | +16 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 6 | — | — | Kaz Grala |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | Austin Dillon |
| 9 | 27 | +18 | Ryan Blaney |
| 10 | 26 | +16 | Cole Custer |
| 11 | 28 | +17 | Chase Briscoe |
| 12 | 24 | +12 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Ryan Newman |
| 14 | 31 | +17 | Ryan Preece |
| 15 | 11 | -4 | Aric Almirola |
| 16 | 6 | -10 | Ross Chastain |
| 17 | 9 | -8 | Christopher Bell |
| 18 | 5 | -13 | Kyle Busch |
| 19 | 20 | +1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 20 | — | — | Harrison Burton |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Chase Elliott |
| 27 | 22 | -5 | Erik Jones |
| 32 | 10 | -22 | Denny Hamlin |
| 39 | 4 | -35 | Joey Logano |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Byron | 2 | 4 | — | 16 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 9 | — | 12 |
| Denny Hamlin | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 13 | — | 6 |
| Ryan Blaney | 14 | 5 | — | 6 |
| Austin Dillon | 9 | 25 | — | 2 |
| Brad Keselowski | 20 | 10 | — | 1 |
| Tyler Reddick | 10 | 19 | — | 1 |
| Kaz Grala | — | — | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 16.0 | 1 | +15.0 |
| 2 | William Byron | 13.9 | 2 | +11.9 |
| 3 | Michael McDowell | 20.0 | 3 | +17.0 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 13.6 | 7 | +6.6 |
| 8 | Austin Dillon | 23.4 | 8 | +15.4 |
| 9 | Ryan Blaney | 13.9 | 9 | +4.9 |
| 10 | Cole Custer | 23.4 | 10 | +13.4 |
| 11 | Chase Briscoe | 21.7 | 11 | +10.7 |
| 12 | Anthony Alfredo | 23.7 | 12 | +11.7 |
| 14 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 14 | +7.1 |
| 16 | Ross Chastain | 17.4 | 16 | +1.4 |
| 17 | Christopher Bell | 17.4 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 18 | Kyle Busch | 15.1 | 18 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Bubba Wallace | 16.0 | 19 | -3.0 |
| 24 | Chase Elliott | 10.4 | 24 | -13.6 |
| 27 | Erik Jones | 18.5 | 27 | -8.5 |
| 32 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 32 | -16.0 |
| 39 | Joey Logano | 20.5 | 39 | -18.5 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 37 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P24 on the day.
- Michael McDowell: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 27 starts, 23.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 GEICO 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2021 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2021 GEICO 500 held?
The 2021 GEICO 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on April 25, 2021.