Xfinity 500
Martinsville Speedway — October 31, 2021
Alex Bowman
Winner
501
Laps
21
Entries
7
Leaders
Alex Bowman won the 2021 Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on October 31, 2021, leading 9 of 501 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | +19 | Alex Bowman |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | William Byron |
| 6 | 31 | +25 | Aric Almirola |
| 7 | 21 | +14 | Kurt Busch |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 15 | +6 | Chris Buescher |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Joey Logano |
| 11 | 4 | -7 | Ryan Blaney |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Kevin Harvick |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Kyle Larson |
| 15 | 22 | +7 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 16 | 5 | -11 | Chase Elliott |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Christopher Bell |
| 18 | 13 | -5 | Tyler Reddick |
| 19 | 6 | -13 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 35 | +15 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 24 | 2 | -22 | Denny Hamlin |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Denny Hamlin | 2 | 2 | — | 18 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 4 | — | 14 |
| Alex Bowman | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| William Byron | 6 | 7 | — | 9 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8 | 6 | — | 8 |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 13 | — | 6 |
| Tyler Reddick | 12 | 8 | — | 3 |
| Kyle Busch | 11 | 9 | — | 2 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | 18 | — | 2 |
| Kurt Busch | 19 | 10 | — | 1 |
| Christopher Bell | 10 | 17 | — | 1 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 1 | +13.0 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 2 | +13.6 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 3 | +9.0 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 4 | +9.8 |
| 5 | William Byron | 10.3 | 5 | +5.3 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 8 | +9.7 |
| 9 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 10 | +2.1 |
| 11 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 11 | -4.2 |
| 13 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 13 | +4.0 |
| 14 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 14 | -5.4 |
| 16 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 16 | -7.7 |
| 17 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 17 | -8.4 |
| 18 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 18 | -8.1 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 19 | +1.1 |
| 20 | Anthony Alfredo | 22.0 | 20 | +2.0 |
| 24 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 24 | -17.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Alex Bowman: has 17 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 16.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P11 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P16. Track history: 52 starts, 12.1 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Xfinity 500?
Alex Bowman won the 2021 Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Xfinity 500 held?
The 2021 Xfinity 500 was held at Martinsville Speedway on October 31, 2021.