Ally 400

Nashville Superspeedway — June 26, 2022

Chase Elliott

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Chase Elliott won the 2022 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on June 26, 2022, leading 42 of 300 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Ryan Blaney rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 26, 2022

Track

Nashville Superspeedway

Season

2022

Winner

Chase Elliott

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	23	+22	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	300	Winner	Running	42	50
2	—	—	Kurt Busch	23XI Racing	300	—	Running	3	42
3	10	+7	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	300	—	Running	1	44
4	1	-3	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	300	—	Running	—	43
5	2	-3	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	300	—	Running	—	36
6	3	-3	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	Running	114	49
7	33	+26	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	300	—	Running	—	30
8	21	+13	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	Running	—	36
9	17	+8	Joey Logano	Team Penske	300	—	Running	4	28
10	13	+3	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	300	—	Running	—	36
11	9	-2	Erik Jones	Petty GMS Motorsports	300	—	Running	—	26
12	11	-1	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	300	—	Running	—	29
13	34	+21	Michael McDowell	Front Row Motorsports	300	—	Running	—	25
14	12	-2	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	300	—	Running	—	23
15	24	+9	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	300	—	Running	—	22
16	20	+4	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	JTG Daugherty Racing	300	—	Running	—	21
17	32	+15	Aric Almirola	Stewart-Haas Racing	300	—	Running	—	20
18	26	+8	Tyler Reddick	Richard Childress Racing	300	—	Running	—	19
19	—	—	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	300	—	Running	—	0
20	31	+11	Corey LaJoie	Spire Motorsports	300	—	Running	—	17
21	29	+8	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	running	54	26
22	6	-16	Martin Truex, Jr.	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	running	82	35
23	—	—	Martin Truex, Jr.	Joe Gibbs	90	—	Running	—	14
24	—	—	Ryan Blaney	Roger Penske	90	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Chase Briscoe	Stewart Haas Racing	90	—	Running	—	22
26	—	—	Ty Gibbs	23XI Racing	90	—	Running	—	0
27	—	—	Corey LaJoie	Spire Motorsports	90	—	Running	—	10
28	—	—	Harrison Burton	Wood Brothers	90	—	Running	—	9
29	—	—	Aric Almirola	Stewart Haas Racing	90	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Mike Rockenfeller	Spire Motorsports	90	—	Running	—	7
31	—	—	Joey Hand	Rick Ware	90	—	Running	—	11
32	—	—	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs	89	—	Running	—	16
33	—	—	Loris Hezemans	Team Hezeberg	89	—	Running	—	0
34	—	—	Cody Ware	Rick Ware	88	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	83	—	Suspension	—	2
36	—	—	Daniil Kvyat	Team Hezeberg	58	—	Running	—	0
38	—	—	Todd Gilliland	Bob Jenkins	28	—	Rear End	—	8
39	—	—	Kyle Tilley	B.J. McLeod	15	—	Steering	—	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Kyle Larson	3	2	—	17
Denny Hamlin	2	3	—	17
Joey Logano	7	1	—	14
Ryan Blaney	6	5	—	11
Ross Chastain	1	13	—	10
Kevin Harvick	16	4	—	7
Aric Almirola	12	6	—	5
Chase Elliott	11	8	—	3
Kyle Busch	19	10	—	1
Martin Truex, Jr.	10	14	—	1
Kurt Busch	—	—	—	—
A.J. Allmendinger	—	—	—	—
Martin Truex, Jr.	—	—	—	—
Ryan Blaney	—	—	—	—
Chase Briscoe	—	—	—	—
Ty Gibbs	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—
Harrison Burton	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—
Mike Rockenfeller	—	—	—	—
Joey Hand	—	—	—	—
Kyle Busch	—	—	—	—
Loris Hezemans	—	—	—	—
Cody Ware	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—
Daniil Kvyat	—	—	—	—
Todd Gilliland	—	—	—	—
Kyle Tilley	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 23 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Chase Elliott	7.8	1	+6.8	High Confidence
3	Ryan Blaney	9.2	3	+6.2	High Confidence
4	Kyle Larson	12.7	4	+8.7	Coinflip
5	Ross Chastain	13.3	5	+8.3	Coinflip
6	Denny Hamlin	8.2	6	+2.2	High Confidence
7	Austin Cindric	15.4	7	+8.4	Coinflip
8	Christopher Bell	10.7	8	+2.7	Moderate
9	Joey Logano	14.7	9	+5.7	Coinflip
11	Erik Jones	16.7	11	+5.7	Coinflip
12	Bubba Wallace	12.7	12	+0.7	Coinflip
13	Michael McDowell	17.0	13	+4.0	Coinflip
14	Austin Dillon	17.1	14	+3.1	Coinflip
15	Daniel Suarez	14.0	15	-1.0	Coinflip
16	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	16	+3.9	Moderate
18	Tyler Reddick	6.2	18	-11.8	High Confidence
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
20	Corey LaJoie	22.2	20	+2.2	High Confidence
21	Kyle Busch	17.0	21	-4.0	Coinflip
22	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	22	-6.6	Coinflip
25	Chase Briscoe	11.9	25	-13.1	Coinflip

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Chase Elliott: has 5 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 15.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 16.0 avg finish, finishing P18 on the day.
Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P34 vs predicted P56. Track history: 2 starts, 33.5 avg finish.

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