O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, September 5, 2026

NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Fall Race at Darlington

Darlington Raceway

Laps 147 Distance 201 mi Type intermediate Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

1.366

asphalt

Surface

Green Flag In

—

Days

—

Hrs

—

Min

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 41 starts at Darlington Raceway with 10 wins and a 7.5 average finish.
Chase Briscoe has 13 starts at Darlington Raceway with 2 wins and a 13.3 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 22 starts at Darlington Raceway with a 17.9 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Darlington Raceway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Fall Race at Darlington on?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Fall Race at Darlington airs on CW on Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Darlington Raceway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Fall Race at Darlington green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1679	22	4	P11(2026)
2	Chase Briscoe	Prev Winner	1605	11	2	P12(2026)
3	Chris Buescher		1579	18	0	P9(2026)
4	Ryan Blaney		1568	19	0	P3(2026)
5	Chase Elliott		1560	19	0	P15(2026)
6	Christopher Bell		1559	14	0	P19(2026)
7	William Byron	Prev Winner	1555	16	1	P8(2026)
8	Tyler Reddick	Prev Winner	1544	14	1	P1(2026)
9	Bubba Wallace		1544	16	0	P34(2026)
10	Daniel Suarez		1526	17	0	P7(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chris Buescher	Favorite	9.2	15.4%	54.1%	72.9%
5	Christopher Bell	Favorite	9.2	12.8%	49.3%	69.3%
6	Chase Elliott	Favorite	10.1	11.0%	46.4%	67.2%
7	Ty Gibbs	Contender	10.7	9.9%	43.9%	65.4%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.7	8.7%	41.6%	63.4%
9	Tyler Reddick	Contender	11.2	7.7%	38.1%	60.3%
10	Joey Logano	Contender	11.9	6.7%	35.8%	58.9%
11	Daniel Suarez	Contender	12.7	5.5%	33.7%	57.5%
12	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.7	5.2%	31.7%	56.0%
13	Kyle Larson	Contender	13.1	4.5%	28.6%	53.7%
14	Carson Hocevar	Contender	13.2	3.9%	26.3%	50.8%
15	Ryan Preece	Mid-Pack	13.3	3.6%	24.9%	50.1%
16	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.1%	21.7%	47.6%
17	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.8%	19.3%	44.4%
18	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.4%
19	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.4%
20	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	16.2	1.7%	13.6%	36.6%
21	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	16.9	1.3%	12.4%	34.0%
22	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.1%	30.1%
23	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.9%	27.7%
24	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.1%	25.7%
25	Zane Smith	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.3%	24.6%
26	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	19.1	0.5%	6.6%	22.7%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.1%	21.9%
28	Austin Dillon	Dark Horse	19.9	0.4%	5.5%	20.9%
29	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	5.0%	19.7%
30	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.7%	18.4%
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.6%
32	Jimmie Johnson	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.1%	16.9%
33	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	11.0%
34	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.1%
35	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.0	0.1%	2.0%	11.7%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	1.9%	10.4%
37	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	22.2	0.1%	2.1%	12.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.7	0.1%	1.3%	7.8%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	26.1	0.0%	0.5%	5.3%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	57.0	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12

(1/5 top-5 hits)

37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races

History at Darlington Raceway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (19 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200	Justin Allgaier	+0.578	JR Motorsports	31
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington	Brandon Jones	—		24
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington	Christopher Bell	—		108
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington	Justin Allgaier	—		119
2023	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington	Denny Hamlin	—		14

All Results at This Track

2026 Allgaier 2025 Jones 2024 Bell 2024 Allgaier 2023 Hamlin 2023 Larson 2022 Gragson 2022 Allgaier 2021 Gragson 2021 Allgaier 2020 Jones 2019 Custer 2018 Keselowski 2017 Hamlin 2016 Sadler 2015 Hamlin 2014 Elliott 2013 Busch 2012 Logano

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Justin Allgaier	333
Kyle Larson	169
Ross Chastain	154
Christopher Bell	135
Sheldon Creed	77

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Darlington Raceway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.