AMD at the Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 13, 2006

Kevin Harvick

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2006 AMD at the Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 13, 2006, leading 28 of 90 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Jamie McMurray rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2006

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Kevin Harvick		90	—	Running	28	185
2	8	+6	Tony Stewart		90	—	Running	7	175
3	24	+21	Jamie McMurray		90	—	Running	—	165
4	6	+2	Robby Gordon		90	—	Running	—	160
5	21	+16	Carl Edwards		90	—	Running	—	155
6	13	+7	Scott Pruett	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	150
7	12	+5	Elliott Sadler		90	—	Running	—	146
8	3	-5	Ryan Newman	Dodge	90	—	Running	7	147
9	9	—	Kyle Busch		90	—	Running	—	138
10	10	—	Denny Hamlin		90	—	Running	—	134
11	16	+5	Jeff Burton		90	—	Running	—	130
12	40	+28	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	90	—	Running	2	132
13	4	-9	Jeff Gordon		90	—	Running	1	129
14	14	—	Clint Bowyer		90	—	Running	—	121
15	22	+7	Jeff Green		90	—	Running	—	118
16	19	+3	Brian Vickers		90	—	Running	—	115
17	5	-12	Jimmie Johnson		90	—	Running	1	117
18	11	-7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		90	—	Running	1	114
19	1	-18	Kurt Busch	Dodge	90	—	Running	38	116
20	20	—	Mark Martin		90	—	Running	—	103
21	30	+9	Matt Kenseth		90	—	Running	—	100
22	2	-20	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	97
23	32	+9	Scott Riggs		90	—	Running	—	94
24	36	+12	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	91
25	28	+3	Scott Wimmer		90	—	Running	3	93
26	39	+13	Dale Jarrett		90	—	Running	—	85
27	31	+4	Bill Elliott	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	82
28	35	+7	Martin Truex, Jr.		90	—	Running	—	79
29	34	+5	Paul Menard		90	—	Running	—	76
30	38	+8	Kyle Petty	Dodge	90	—	Running	1	78
31	15	-16	Boris Said		90	—	Running	—	70
32	18	-14	Ron Fellows		90	—	Running	—	67
33	26	-7	J.J. Yeley		90	—	Running	—	64
34	23	-11	Ken Schrader		89	—	Running	—	61
35	17	-18	Casey Mears	Dodge	89	—	Running	—	58
36	33	-3	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	89	—	Running	1	60
37	29	-8	Terry Labonte		81	—	Running	—	52
38	41	+3	Greg Biffle		75	—	DNF	—	49
39	42	+3	Sterling Marlin		64	—	DNF	—	46
40	25	-15	Dave Blaney	Dodge	61	—	DNF	—	43
41	43	+2	Brian Simo		61	—	DNF	—	40
42	37	-5	Joe Nemechek		61	—	DNF	—	37
43	27	-16	Marc Goossens		58	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
9	Kyle Busch	13.0	9	+4.0	Coinflip
10	Denny Hamlin	16.7	10	+6.7	Moderate
17	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	17	-0.3	Moderate
28	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	28	-11.5	Coinflip
33	J.J. Yeley	21.9	33	-11.1	High Confidence
35	Casey Mears	16.7	35	-18.3	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 32 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 11.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 31 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P9 on the day.

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