NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — September 30, 2007

Greg Biffle

Winner

210

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Greg Biffle won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on September 30, 2007, leading 37 of 210 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Greg Biffle

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Greg Biffle		210	—	Running	37	190
2	10	+8	Clint Bowyer		210	—	Running	—	170
3	1	-2	Jimmie Johnson		210	—	Running	1	170
4	16	+12	Casey Mears		210	—	Running	—	160
5	4	-1	Jeff Gordon		210	—	Running	6	160
6	17	+11	Kevin Harvick		210	—	Running	18	155
7	14	+7	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	210	—	Running	—	146
8	15	+7	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	210	—	Running	—	142
9	29	+20	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	210	—	Running	—	138
10	6	-4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		210	—	Running	—	134
11	12	+1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	210	—	Running	76	140
12	39	+27	Mark Martin		210	—	Running	—	127
13	3	-10	Scott Riggs	Dodge	210	—	Running	—	124
14	31	+17	J.J. Yeley		210	—	Running	—	121
15	43	+28	Dave Blaney		210	—	Running	3	123
16	18	+2	David Ragan		210	—	Running	—	115
17	36	+19	David Stremme	Dodge	210	—	Running	—	112
18	40	+22	Tony Raines		210	—	Running	—	109
19	41	+22	Robby Gordon		210	—	Running	—	106
20	37	+17	Jeff Green		210	—	Running	—	103
21	33	+12	Kyle Petty	Dodge	210	—	Running	4	105
22	26	+4	Jeremy Mayfield		210	—	Running	—	97
23	30	+7	Johnny Sauter		210	—	Running	—	94
24	20	-4	Jamie McMurray		210	—	Running	—	91
25	24	-1	Joe Nemechek		210	—	Running	—	88
26	13	-13	Dale Jarrett		210	—	Running	—	85
27	23	-4	Paul Menard		210	—	Running	—	82
28	21	-7	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	209	—	Running	—	79
29	5	-24	Denny Hamlin		209	—	Running	—	76
30	11	-19	Michael Waltrip		209	—	Running	—	73
31	25	-6	David Reutimann		209	—	Running	—	70
32	35	+3	Ken Schrader		208	—	Running	—	67
33	28	-5	John Andretti	Dodge	208	—	Running	—	64
34	22	-12	David Gilliland		206	—	Running	—	61
35	2	-33	Matt Kenseth		206	—	Running	49	63
36	34	-2	Jeff Burton		199	—	Running	—	55
37	27	-10	Carl Edwards		181	—	Running	—	52
38	9	-29	Martin Truex, Jr.		175	—	DNF	3	54
39	19	-20	Tony Stewart		174	—	DNF	13	51
40	38	-2	Kenny Wallace		171	—	DNF	—	43
41	8	-33	Kyle Busch		164	—	DNF	—	40
42	32	-10	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	155	—	DNF	—	37
43	42	-1	Ryan Newman	Dodge	108	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 18.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
4	Casey Mears	16.9	4	+12.9	Coinflip
14	J.J. Yeley	28.8	14	+14.8	High Confidence
29	Denny Hamlin	8.2	29	-20.8	High Confidence
38	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	38	-22.6	Coinflip
41	Kyle Busch	17.0	41	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Greg Biffle: has 30 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 10.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P29 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.

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