NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — October 7, 2007

Jeff Gordon

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 7, 2007, leading 1 of 188 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Dave Blaney rounded out the podium. The race featured 22 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2007

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

22 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	34	+33	Jeff Gordon		188	—	Running	1	190
2	19	+17	Jimmie Johnson		188	—	Running	6	175
3	2	-1	Dave Blaney		188	—	Running	1	170
4	18	+14	Denny Hamlin		188	—	Running	40	170
5	16	+11	Ryan Newman	Dodge	188	—	Running	10	160
6	29	+23	Casey Mears		188	—	Running	—	150
7	41	+34	Kurt Busch	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	146
8	11	+3	Tony Stewart		188	—	Running	38	147
9	14	+5	Tony Raines		188	—	Running	5	143
10	28	+18	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	134
11	23	+12	Clint Bowyer		188	—	Running	1	135
12	39	+27	Johnny Sauter		188	—	Running	2	132
13	32	+19	Jeff Green		188	—	Running	1	129
14	31	+17	Carl Edwards		188	—	Running	—	121
15	22	+7	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	118
16	9	-7	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	115
17	33	+16	David Stremme	Dodge	188	—	Running	1	117
18	17	-1	J.J. Yeley		188	—	Running	—	109
19	15	-4	Mike Wallace		188	—	Running	—	106
20	37	+17	Kevin Harvick		188	—	Running	1	108
21	6	-15	Jacques Villeneuve		188	—	Running	—	100
22	5	-17	David Reutimann		179	—	Running	2	102
23	20	-3	Greg Biffle		176	—	Running	—	94
24	10	-14	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	175	—	Running	25	96
25	1	-24	Michael Waltrip		175	—	Running	6	93
26	25	-1	Matt Kenseth		171	—	Running	—	85
27	27	—	David Gilliland		167	—	Running	—	82
28	12	-16	Kyle Petty	Dodge	161	—	Running	1	84
29	24	-5	Robby Gordon		161	—	Running	3	81
30	38	+8	Aric Almirola		156	—	DNF	—	73
31	40	+9	Ken Schrader		152	—	DNF	—	70
32	4	-28	Joe Nemechek		149	—	DNF	—	67
33	7	-26	John Andretti	Dodge	149	—	DNF	—	64
34	42	+8	David Ragan		146	—	DNF	—	61
35	8	-27	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	144	—	DNF	3	63
36	36	—	Kyle Busch		144	—	DNF	1	60
37	35	-2	Jamie McMurray		144	—	DNF	—	52
38	30	-8	Paul Menard		144	—	DNF	—	49
39	3	-36	Brian Vickers		144	—	DNF	8	51
40	26	-14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		136	—	DNF	31	48
41	43	+2	Dale Jarrett		136	—	DNF	—	40
42	13	-29	Martin Truex, Jr.		113	—	DNF	1	42
43	21	-22	Jeff Burton		91	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 15.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	2	+16.9	Coinflip
4	Denny Hamlin	16.0	4	+12.0	Coinflip
6	Casey Mears	18.5	6	+12.5	Coinflip
18	J.J. Yeley	25.2	18	+7.2	High Confidence
36	Kyle Busch	15.1	36	-20.9	Coinflip
42	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	42	-21.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 47 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.8 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P36 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 39 starts, 18.5 avg finish.

Track Preview →