UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400

Las Vegas Motor Speedway — March 11, 2007

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2007 UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 11, 2007, leading 89 of 267 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 16 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Track

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

16 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	23	+22	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	89	190
2	36	+34	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	111	180
3	17	+14	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	165
4	37	+33	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	1	165
5	14	+9	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	15	160
6	13	+7	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	3	155
7	25	+18	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	—	146
8	39	+31	Ryan Newman	Dodge	267	—	Running	1	147
9	12	+3	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	4	143
10	33	+23	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	134
11	28	+17	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	1	135
12	26	+14	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	2	132
13	42	+29	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	267	—	Running	3	129
14	3	-11	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	267	—	Running	17	126
15	5	-10	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	4	123
16	18	+2	Greg Biffle		266	—	Running	—	115
17	38	+21	Robby Gordon		266	—	Running	—	112
18	24	+6	J.J. Yeley		266	—	Running	1	114
19	27	+8	Tony Raines		266	—	Running	—	106
20	2	-18	David Stremme	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	103
21	21	—	David Gilliland		265	—	Running	—	100
22	4	-18	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	97
23	6	-17	Scott Riggs	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	94
24	15	-9	Kenny Wallace		265	—	Running	—	91
25	29	+4	Jeff Green		265	—	Running	—	88
26	10	-16	Kurt Busch	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	85
27	20	-7	Kevin Harvick		265	—	Running	—	82
28	22	-6	Kyle Petty	Dodge	265	—	Running	—	79
29	41	+12	Jon Wood		264	—	Running	—	76
30	40	+10	Ricky Rudd		264	—	Running	—	73
31	7	-24	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	263	—	Running	—	70
32	19	-13	Paul Menard		263	—	Running	—	67
33	43	+10	Dale Jarrett		263	—	Running	—	64
34	8	-26	Sterling Marlin		251	—	Running	1	66
35	1	-34	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	251	—	Running	13	63
36	16	-20	Clint Bowyer		239	—	Running	1	60
37	35	-2	David Ragan		236	—	Running	—	52
38	9	-29	Joe Nemechek		156	—	DNF	—	49
39	32	-7	Johnny Sauter		147	—	DNF	—	46
40	34	-6	Casey Mears		141	—	DNF	—	43
41	31	-10	Aric Almirola		46	—	DNF	—	40
42	11	-31	Dave Blaney		17	—	DNF	—	37
43	30	-13	Ward Burton		15	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
9	Kyle Busch	17.0	9	+8.0	Coinflip
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	12	+3.4	Coinflip
18	J.J. Yeley	28.8	18	+10.8	High Confidence
40	Casey Mears	16.9	40	-23.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 24 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P3 on the day.

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