NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

Daytona International Speedway — July 4, 2009

Tony Stewart

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona at Daytona International Speedway on July 4, 2009, leading 86 of 160 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	86	195
2	3	+1	Jimmie Johnson		160	—	Running	—	170
3	6	+3	Denny Hamlin		160	—	Running	63	170
4	5	+1	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	—	160
5	4	-1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	160	—	Running	1	160
6	18	+12	Marcos Ambrose		160	—	Running	—	150
7	17	+10	Brian Vickers		160	—	Running	—	146
8	10	+2	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	3	147
9	12	+3	Juan Pablo Montoya		160	—	Running	—	138
10	23	+13	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	134
11	22	+11	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	—	130
12	43	+31	Regan Smith		160	—	Running	—	127
13	31	+18	David Ragan		160	—	Running	—	124
14	8	-6	Kyle Busch		160	—	Running	1	126
15	13	-2	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	118
16	16	—	Jeff Burton		160	—	Running	2	120
17	30	+13	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	112
18	9	-9	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	—	109
19	21	+2	Joey Logano		160	—	Running	—	106
20	7	-13	Ryan Newman		160	—	Running	1	108
21	28	+7	Bobby Labonte		160	—	Running	—	100
22	34	+12	Robby Gordon		160	—	Running	1	102
23	33	+10	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	—	94
24	36	+12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	91
25	24	-1	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	88
26	27	+1	Kevin Harvick		160	—	Running	—	85
27	35	+8	John Andretti		160	—	Running	1	87
28	2	-26	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	1	84
29	15	-14	Clint Bowyer		159	—	Running	—	76
30	42	+12	Tony Raines		158	—	Running	—	73
31	37	+6	Scott Speed		152	—	Running	—	70
32	25	-7	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	152	—	Running	—	67
33	26	-7	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	146	—	Running	—	64
34	20	-14	Casey Mears		144	—	Running	—	61
35	32	-3	David Stremme	Dodge	129	—	DNF	—	58
36	14	-22	David Reutimann		127	—	DNF	—	55
37	29	-8	Michael Waltrip		124	—	DNF	—	52
38	11	-27	Mark Martin		79	—	DNF	—	49
39	19	-20	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		76	—	DNF	—	46
40	38	-2	David Gilliland		76	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	Joe Nemechek		25	—	DNF	—	40
42	41	-1	Patrick Carpentier		18	—	DNF	—	37
43	40	-3	Dave Blaney		2	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	2	+16.9	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	16.0	3	+13.0	Coinflip
14	Kyle Busch	15.1	14	+1.1	Coinflip
17	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	17	+3.1	Moderate
19	Joey Logano	20.5	19	+1.5	Moderate
24	Brad Keselowski	16.0	24	-8.0	Coinflip
25	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	25	-4.9	Coinflip
34	Casey Mears	18.5	34	-15.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 47 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 42 starts, 17.7 avg finish.

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