NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway — August 21, 2011
Kyle Busch
Winner
203
Laps
43
Entries
10
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 21, 2011, leading 22 of 203 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Season
2011
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | +16 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 19 | +17 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 3 | 6 | +3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Mark Martin |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Ryan Newman |
| 6 | 9 | +3 | Jeff Gordon |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Kasey Kahne |
| 8 | 35 | +27 | Clint Bowyer |
| 9 | 18 | +9 | Tony Stewart |
| 10 | 2 | -8 | Matt Kenseth |
| 11 | 29 | +18 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 12 | 7 | -5 | David Ragan |
| 13 | 30 | +17 | Regan Smith |
| 14 | 8 | -6 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 15 | 26 | +11 | Brian Vickers |
| 16 | 28 | +12 | Bobby Labonte |
| 17 | 32 | +15 | Jeff Burton |
| 18 | 12 | -6 | David Reutimann |
| 19 | 15 | -4 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 20 | 1 | -19 | Greg Biffle |
| 21 | 23 | +2 | Joey Logano |
| 22 | 24 | +2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 23 | 10 | -13 | Jamie McMurray |
| 24 | 20 | -4 | Trevor Bayne |
| 25 | 25 | — | Juan Pablo Montoya |
| 26 | 11 | -15 | Paul Menard |
| 27 | 16 | -11 | Marcos Ambrose |
| 28 | 27 | -1 | Travis Kvapil |
| 29 | 38 | +9 | Andy Lally |
| 30 | 42 | +12 | Ken Schrader |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Landon Cassill |
| 32 | 39 | +7 | David Gilliland |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | Dave Blaney |
| 34 | 13 | -21 | Kurt Busch |
| 35 | 4 | -31 | Denny Hamlin |
| 36 | 22 | -14 | Carl Edwards |
| 37 | 21 | -16 | Casey Mears |
| 38 | 41 | +3 | Tony Raines |
| 39 | 40 | +1 | Todd Bodine |
| 40 | 36 | -4 | David Stremme |
| 41 | 37 | -4 | Joe Nemechek |
| 42 | 43 | +1 | Mike Skinner |
| 43 | 31 | -12 | J.J. Yeley |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 2 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 2 | +17.9 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 3 | +8.2 |
| 11 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 11 | +7.3 |
| 19 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 19 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 21 | -6.3 |
| 35 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 35 | -26.8 |
| 37 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 37 | -20.1 |
| 43 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 43 | -14.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 55 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 12.2 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P35 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 42 starts, 17.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan?
Kyle Busch won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan held?
The 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan was held at Michigan International Speedway on August 21, 2011.